Indus Waters Treaty freeze: India’s dam push could dry out Pakistan’s crops. What happens next?

India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) marks a significant escalation in its strategy following the Pahalgam terror attack.

The move signals a shift in how New Delhi may leverage transboundary water flows to increase pressure on Pakistan.

As treaty constraints lift, India is likely to assert more control over its rivers, fast-track hydro projects, and reduce cooperation—developments that could have far-reaching implications for Pakistan’s agriculture, energy, and economy.

India is likely to halt regulated water releases from the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—which were previously governed under the IWT. While natural flows will continue, regulated releases from hydro projects such as Kishanganga and Ratle may stop, impacting Pakistan’s water availability during peak agricultural seasons.

Projects like the 330 MW Kishanganga Dam and the under-construction 850 MW Ratle Dam are expected to be prioritized. With the treaty suspended, India may move to redesign these projects without earlier constraints, potentially increasing water storage or modifying downstream flows—both of which have drawn past objections from Pakistan.

India is also expected to expedite use of its full share from the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—via infrastructure like the Shahpurkandi Dam (completed in 2024) and the planned Ujh Dam. These efforts could significantly reduce the flow of surplus water into Pakistan—estimated at up to 9.3 billion cubic meters annually.

New Delhi is also likely to suspend water data sharing with Islamabad. This includes halting the exchange of real-time flow data and blocking future inspections of Indian hydro facilities by Pakistani officials.

The dams that matter

-- Kishanganga (Jhelum): Operational since 2018, diverts water from a key Mangla Dam tributary.
-- Ratle (Chenab): Under construction, may further cut flows to Pakistani Punjab.
-- Shahpurkandi (Ravi): Redirects Ravi water to Indian channels, reducing Pakistan’s access.
-- Ujh (Ravi): A planned dam that would further decrease downstream water availability.

Pakistan’s response
Pakistan may approach the International Court of Justice or the Permanent Court of Arbitration, though India now contests their jurisdiction under the suspended framework.

Diplomatic options include seeking World Bank intervention (as the treaty’s original broker) and rallying support from allies such as China and the OIC. Retaliatory steps—such as trade disruptions or diplomatic escalation—are possible but may be constrained by Pakistan’s economic challenges.

How this impacts Pakistan

Agricultural disruption: Roughly 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated land depends on the Indus system. Disruptions may reduce yields of key crops like wheat, rice, and cotton—critical to GDP and food security.

Groundwater stress: With surface flows reduced, farmers may turn to groundwater, worsening aquifer depletion and land salinization.

Power supply strain: Hydropower output from Tarbela and Mangla dams, which supply ~30% of electricity, may decline amid lower inflows.

Economic fallout: Reduced yields could impact rural employment, trigger defaults, and increase urban migration pressures on cities like Lahore and Karachi.

Soil degradation: Reduced irrigation may worsen salinity issues, already affecting 43% of arable land, risking long-term desertification.

Inter-provincial water tensions: Diminished flow could spark disputes among provinces, reviving historical tensions under the 1991 Water Accord.

Export setbacks: Agricultural exports like Basmati rice and textiles may shrink, hitting foreign exchange reserves and weakening the rupee.

Crop shift: Pakistan may need to adopt water-efficient crops such as millets, but infrastructure and training gaps may slow transition.