La Nina set to return in India, above-average monsoon expected from July to September

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APCC) Climate Center has released its first monsoon forecast for India this year. The Center has given two distinct forecasts for the periods of April to June and July to September. As per the predictions, India is expected to receive above-average rainfall during its main monsoon season from July to September. The change in forecast is linked to the recent ENSO alert that anticipates a smooth shift from El Nino to La Nina condition.

The APCC introduced an ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) alert system update on March 15, 2024. The ENSO status predicts a La Nina WATCH for the period of April to September 2024. 

The alert underlines the crucial need for stakeholders and policymakers to closely observe climate patterns in the approaching months due to potential impacts associated with La Nina conditions, such as altered weather patterns and consequent environmental consequences.

The APCC Climate Center, in its July to September outlook, stated: "Enhanced probability for above-normal precipitation is predicted for the region spanning eastern Africa to the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, and Indonesia, the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North Atlantic, southern Australia, and the southern South Pacific. A tendency for above-normal precipitation is expected for some regions of East Asia and northern Australia."

Earlier, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had said that India is likely to embrace abundant rainfall during monsoon this year, under the reduced influence of El Nino and significant La-Nina conditions in the Pacific region after May. 

El-Nino is the periodic warming of waters in the central Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon has a direct impact on the weather patterns prevalent over the Indian peninsula. 

La Nina refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Typically, La Nina events occur every 3 to 5 years or so, but on occasion can occur over successive years. La Nina represents the cool phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

The June-September monsoon, which is vital for India's $3 trillion economy, brings nearly 70% of the rain the country needs to water crops and replenish reservoirs and aquifers.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that persistent El Nino conditions are likely to bring intense heat during the summer season this year. However, the prevailing El Nino conditions will likely get neutral after the summer season.

Before a good monsoon, India will see a scorching summer season due to prevalent El Nino conditions. More heatwave days than normal are predicted over northeast peninsular India -- Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and north interior Karnataka -- and many parts of Maharashtra and Odisha. The country is likely to record above-normal rainfall in March (more than 117 per cent of the long-period average of 29.9 mm).