BJP may get 350 seats on their own, Congress likely to get 44: Top economist

Lok Sabha polls: The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to get around 350 seats on their own on the basis of statistical possibility, top economist and psephologist Surjit Bhalla said in a recent interview. He added that the BJP is likely to see a 5 to 7 per cent increase in seats won when compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha election results. 

"Based on statistical possibility, they should get 330 to 350 seats on their own. This is just the BJP, not including its alliance partners," Bhalla told NDTV. He further explained: "It can be a wave election. Every election has a potential (to be a wave). But it may not also be a wave election." 

While Bhalla was optimistic about the BJP's potential gains in the 2024 general elections, he said that the Opposition Congress is likely to win less than what it got in the 2014 elections. Bhalla said that the grand old party might get 44 seats or 2 per cent less than it got in the 2014 general polls. 

The economist-cum-psephologist said that the problem with the Opposition INDIA bloc is its leadership. He said that economy and leadership are both on the BJP's side in this election. Bhalla added that the general elections of 2024 would have been a contest had the Opposition chosen a leader with a mass appeal or having half the appeal that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has. 

Furthermore, he said that the BJP is expected to win at least 5 seats in Tamil Nadu and one or two in Kerala as well. Surjit Bhalla attributed this likelihood of the BJP making inroads in the South to the improvement in the economy and people's living conditions. 

Bhalla noted, citing former US President Bill Clinton: "India votes on the basis of how much improvement has been in people's lives. That's the basic premise. It's not caste, not gender, not the various factors that people attribute to, but it is precisely what Bill Clinton said in 1992, 'It's the economy, stupid.' "

He said that India's per capita consumption has improved and so have lives, while making the case for raising the poverty line.  Bhalla added that around a quarter of the population is poor in some sense. He further said: "Poverty is relative now, no longer absolute."

"The poor will always be with us. The rich will always be with us. It depends on how you define who are the poor, and we use the World Bank definition of $1.9 per person per day. We are saying it should be doubled because of the improvement in lives and economy," he said.

The voting for phase 1 of the Lok Sabha elections 2024 took place on April 12. Polling for the second phase will take place on April 19.