Lok Sabha election results 2024: Can BJP crack the Southern code? All eyes on Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Kerala

Exit polls predict a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, indicating a potential stellar performance for the BJP in the South. 

For the first time, the party is expected to secure a quarter of the 131 seats in the region, including Puducherry and Lakshwadeep. The BJP had its best-ever performance in 2019, winning 29 seats—25 in Karnataka and four in Telangana. 

This time, forecasts suggest the party could significantly increase this tally.

Pollsters, including India Today-My Axis India, indicate the BJP is making substantial inroads into Tamil Nadu and Kerala, marking its most impressive show in both vote share and seats won. For the first time, the BJP is set to win in Tamil Nadu without relying on major Dravidian parties and might even secure a seat in Kerala, despite a drop in voter turnout compared to 2019.

Modi's frequent visits and rallies across southern states over the past year, combined with early strategic alliances and robust poll management, have been crucial in boosting the BJP's prospects. The party's ability to organise down to the booth level and craft compelling narratives has contributed significantly to its expected success.

In Karnataka, voter turnout increased from 68.81% to 70.64%. The BJP is poised to replicate its 2019 performance, aided by an alliance with Janata Dal (Secular). Despite the Congress winning the state in the 2023 Assembly polls, pollsters predict the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will secure 23-25 of the 28 seats. The BJP is likely to dominate in Bengaluru, Malnad, coastal areas, Mumbai-Karnataka, and Central Karnataka, its traditional strongholds. The performance of JD(S), expected to win 1-3 seats, will also be a factor. The BJP's strategy of leveraging a Lingayat-Vokkaliga combination and Modi’s leadership remains pivotal.

In Telangana, where Congress won the recent assembly elections, the BJP is predicted to put up a strong show. The party's vote share is projected to rise sharply from 19.65% in 2019 to around 43%, potentially matching or surpassing Congress’s expected tally of 16 seats. The BRS vote share is expected to plummet from 41.71%, with the BJP not just winning more seats than its 2019 total but also marginalising Congress and eclipsing KCR's BRS. 

Despite increased polling from 62.77% to 65.67%, the BJP is anticipated to retain Secunderabad and gain seats like Chevella and Malkajgiri, impacting Greater Hyderabad's constituencies except for AIMIM’s Hyderabad stronghold. The BJP's strategy, including fielding a political newcomer like Madhavi Latha, has laid the groundwork for future gains.