Massive boost for Modi: BJP set to win 281 seats if elections held today, predicts MOTN poll

The BJP is projected to cross the majority mark with 281 seats if Lok Sabha elections were held today, according to the India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll. The survey indicates a strong comeback for the ruling NDA, which is likely to win 343 seats overall. This would give the BJP a simple majority on its own, a feat it could not achieve in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

In the 2024 elections, the BJP secured 240 seats, falling short of the 272 majority mark. It had to rely on its allies, including Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP, to form the government for a record third consecutive term. However, the current projections show significant gains for the saffron party, bringing it back to 281 seats — 9 above the majority mark. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who earlier called for ‘400 paar’, may see the BJP regaining dominance if elections were to be held today.

The results spell trouble for the Congress-led INDIA bloc, which surprised many in 2024 by punching above its weight to win 232 seats. If elections were held today, the INDIA bloc’s tally would drop to 188. The Congress itself is expected to win just 78 seats — down from 99 in 2024. Its vote share is also projected to shrink from 25% to 20%.

On the other hand, the NDA’s vote share is expected to rise from 44% in 2024 to 47%. The INDIA bloc is predicted to see only a minor improvement in its vote share, rising by 1 percentage point, but it is not translating into seat gains. Infighting and inconsistent performance in subsequent state elections appear to have weakened the opposition alliance’s momentum.

The India Today-CVoter poll suggests a clear shift in political fortunes in favor of the BJP and the NDA. The survey, conducted between January 2 and February 9, included 125,123 individuals across all Lok Sabha constituencies. It combined fresh interviews with long-term tracking data to gauge the nation’s mood.