Monsoon 2025: Skymet predicts normal monsoon with 103% rainfall of the long-period average

Skymet, a leading private weather forecaster, has predicted a normal monsoon for India this year, with rainfall expected to be 103% of the long-period average (LPA). This forecast covers the crucial June to September period and maintains an error margin of +/-5%. The LPA for this four-month duration is set at 868.6 mm, where 'normal' rainfall is defined between 96-104% of the LPA. While Skymet has released its forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet to announce its long-range monsoon forecast.

Skymet anticipates good rains, particularly in West and South India, with regions like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh expected to experience adequate rainfall. There is a likelihood of excess rainfall along the Western Ghats, notably in Kerala, coastal Karnataka, and Goa. However, the North-East and the hill regions of North India might see less than normal rainfall. The forecast considers various climatic factors, including a transition from La Nina to a neutral state in the Pacific Ocean, which is expected to shield the monsoon from adverse effects.

Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet, confirmed that their latest update reinforces previous estimates of a normal monsoon. Singh stated, "Rain-friendly La Nina in the Equatorial East Pacific has turned weak, and brief too. Its vital signs have started fading now." The absence of El Nino, often associated with disrupted monsoon patterns, is considered beneficial for the upcoming season. "Occurrence of alter-ego El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon, is ruled out," Singh added.

A neutral Pacific, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is expected to enhance the monsoon's performance. Historically, these conditions have supported a favourable monsoon season in India. Although Skymet has indicated that the monsoon may have a subdued beginning due to the quick transition from La Nina, they also expressed optimism about improved rainfall in the latter half of the season. "Skymet suspects the monsoon may have a quiet start on account of a quick transition from La Nina to neutral state, and gain enough pace half way through the season," Singh added.

The significance of the monsoon for India's agrarian economy cannot be understated, as it influences agricultural productivity and water resources. The positive forecast by Skymet, particularly in the core monsoon zones, provides a sense of relief for farmers and policymakers who depend on these rains for planning and operational readiness. The anticipated normal monsoon aligns with the historic trends observed under similar oceanic conditions, offering optimism for sustained agricultural growth and stability in the upcoming months.