Monsoon begins retreat from northwest India, despite slow start India records 5% surplus rainfall

The southwest monsoon has begun its retreat from northwest India — west Rajasthan and Kutch — from today, a week later than its normal date of withdrawal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement on September 23. 

Usually, the monsoon retreat starts from Bikaner and Jaisalmer districts by September 17, however, this time, rainfall continued through the week. Last year, the monsoon retreat began from West Rajasthan on September 25 – eight days later than its normal date of September 17. In 2022, it was late by three days (September 20), but a year before it did not start withdrawing until October 6 – a delay of over three weeks. 

“Conditions are favourable for withdrawal of monsoon from some more parts of West Rajasthan and adjoining areas of Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat in the next 24 hours,” the IMD said. “As withdrawal begins, very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over coastal and north interior Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Goa during the next three days and heavy rainfall over central, east, and northeast India between Tuesday and Friday.” 

According to IMD, the conditions are favourable for its further withdrawal from some more parts of West Rajasthan and adjoining areas of Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat during the next 24 hours. The weather is likely to mostly remain dry over Northwest India, except for some scattered showers in some areas over the next few days. 

The agricultural sector is a key part of the country’s economy and is heavily dependent on monsoon. India fulfils almost 70 percent of its needs for farms, reservoirs and aquifers from southwest monsoon. A haphazard monsoon is a threat to the lifeblood of a nearly $3.5-trillion economy. Without irrigation, nearly half of Indian farmland depends on the rains that usually run from June to September. 

The southwest monsoon generally kicks off in June and starts to retreat by September 17. However, the rains continued this year, which helped to replenish reservoirs but damaged the harvesting of some crops. 

Despite a slow start, the monsoon has been 6 percent above normal over Northwest India, 16-15 percent over Central and southern peninsular, while it is (-16 percent) deficient in North-east India. 

Overall, the monsoon is 5 percent above the long-term average. Of the total 36 sub-divisions, 9 subdivisions mostly along the west-coast have recorded excess rains, including Rajasthan (74 percent), Gujarat (68 percent), Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh. The rainfall has been below-normal in Jammu and Kashmir (-25 percent), Punjab (-27 percent), Himachal Pradesh (-20 percent), Bihar (-28 percent) and Arunachal Pradesh (-29 percent). 

Meanwhile, the IMD said that a fresh low-pressure system is expected to develop over the west-central Bay of Bengal by September 24, which is likely to bring more rain to the southern India, including Marathwada, Vidarbha, coastal Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe over the next two days. IMD also noted that La Niña is expected to emerge later this month and persist until the end of 2024.