Monsoon in India to arrive in Kerala coast on May 31

Rainfall forecast in India: The Indian monsoon is set to arrive on May 31, hitting the Kerala coast in the Southwest first. This is expected to be a relief for farmers after a below-average rainfall last year. The state-run weather office said on Wednesday that this year India would witness above average rainfall – between 96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm. 

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be May 31, with a model error of plus/minus four days. This is days ahead of last year’s June 8, which was the latest arrival of monsoons in four years. 

IMD has forecast rainfall of 106 per cent of the long-term average, driven by the La Nina conditions. La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, which is the warming of Pacific waters with drier conditions over the Indian subcontinent, is characterised by  cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

Last year the El Nino weather pattern delivered the driest August in more than a century. 

MONSOON AND CROPS

Monsoon is the life-force of nearly half of the farmlands that have no irrigation cover and depend on the June-September rains to grow a range of crops. Indian monsoons deliver nearly 70 per cent of the rain that the country needs to water their farms and recharge reservoirs and aquifers. 

Summer rains begin with Kerala around June 1 and spread across the whole country by mid-July, driving the planting of crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans and sugarcane. 

Plentiful monsoon rains could not only help farmers harvest bumper crops but also prompt the government to consider easing export curbs on rice etc.