Narendra Modi-led NDA falls short of majority mark in Rajya Sabha as 4 nominated members retire; key non-NDA allies to become crucial

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) saw a reduction in its strength in the Rajya Sabha by four crucial members, as the terms of these nominated members came to an end on Saturday.

As per news reports, these members are Rakesh Sinha, Ram Shakal, Sonal Mansingh, and Mahesh Jethmalani, and were initially appointed as non-aligned nominees by President Droupadi Murmu on the recommendation of the ruling party. 

With their retirement, the BJP's tally in the Rajya Sabha now stands at 86 seats, and the overall strength of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, has been reduced to 101 seats. This number falls short of the current majority mark of 113 in the 245-member House. However, the NDA retains the backing of seven remaining nominated MPs and an independent member.

Currently, the Rajya Sabha has a total strength of 225 members.

The BJP already has 240 members in the lower house of the Parliament, far short of the majority mark of 272. And this essentially means that, as of now, the ruling party is short of majority in both houses of the Parliament.

The opposition bloc, which is led by the Congress, holds 87 seats, with the Congress itself accounting for 26 seats, followed by 13 seats from West Bengal's ruling Trinamool Congress, and 10 seats each from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu.

Other parties, not aligned with either the BJP or the Congress, including nominated MPs and independents, hold the remaining seats.

With the BJP and the NDA's tally falling short of the majority mark, what this means is that now the government has to depend upon the support from non-NDA parties, like its former ally in Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK and in Andhra Pradesh, former CM Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress.

Jagan Reddy has, in the past, lent issue-based support to the government. The other party that had, in the past, lent such a support was Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD). However, with a bruising election battle in 2024, which saw Patnaik losing his chief minister chair to the BJP, after a whopping 24 years, has said that the BJD would not lend any more support to the BJP. 

This dependence is likely to persist until the BJP fills the four vacant nominated seats and the elections for the 11 vacant seats, scheduled later this year, are conducted.

Currently, there are 20 vacant seats in the Rajya Sabha, including 11 held by elected members for which elections are expected this year. These vacancies include two seats each in Maharashtra, Assam, and Bihar, and one seat each in Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Tripura.

Additionally, four seats from Jammu and Kashmir are vacant, with elections anticipated following a Supreme Court directive to hold Assembly elections in the region by September 30.

Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections would be crucial as these states go to poll later this year.

The upcoming election in Telangana too is important, especially for the Congress, as the Grand Old Party is expected to potentially secure enough seats to claim the Leader of the Opposition post in the Rajya Sabha, thereby holding this position in both Houses of Parliament.