Next bull run soon? Investor Abhijit Chokshi says India is 'quietly' laying the groundwork—here're the signs

India’s economy may be setting the stage for its next big rally, with a confluence of macroeconomic indicators quietly signaling a potential bull run, according to investor and market commentator Abhijit Chokshi.

In a tweet Wednesday, Chokshi pointed to falling crude oil prices, improving domestic liquidity, resilient consumption, and strong GST collections as critical drivers powering India’s economic engine. “Crude oil has dropped to $65—a blessing for an import-heavy economy like India,” he noted, highlighting how lower oil prices could curb inflation, boost consumer sentiment, and increase discretionary spending.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is also expected to cut interest rates this week, further easing borrowing costs and unlocking growth. “This makes borrowing cheaper, investments rise, and growth picks up momentum,” Chokshi wrote. His observations come at a time when analysts are closely watching for signs of rate action amid easing inflationary pressures.

One of the key shifts he pointed out is the recent turnaround in liquidity. “After nearly 4 months of tight money, there’s finally a liquidity surplus in the banking system,” Chokshi noted. “This means banks are flush with funds and ready to lend.”

Unlike several export-driven economies, India’s domestic consumption continues to be its strength. “India’s GDP doesn’t rely heavily on goods exports. Domestic demand is our real strength,” he emphasized. Supporting this, India’s GST collections recently touched record highs, signaling robust business activity and strong consumer confidence.

The global trade reset, triggered by shifting geopolitical alignments and new tariff regimes, may also offer a long-term advantage. “Countries are diversifying supply chains. India is ready to step up,” said Chokshi.

He concluded by pointing to the quiet but steady consolidation in the Indian markets over the past six to seven months. “Smart money has already started moving,” he said. “When the breakout happens, it will be fast—and loud.”

​Economists have expressed varied perspectives on how current global turmoil might impact India's economy in 2025. While some anticipate a slight deceleration, others believe India will maintain robust growth despite external challenges.​