'Pakistan may break into four pieces': Experts warn as Baloch insurgents hijack Jaffar Express

Former Jammu and Kashmir DGP SP Vaid on Tuesday warned that Pakistan is on the brink of disintegration, following the hijacking of the Jaffar Express in Balochistan by Baloch insurgents.

“Pakistan's army and government have lost control over Balochistan. Maulana Fazlur Rehman had said in Pakistan's Senate that 6-7 districts of Balochistan are completely under the control of terrorists. Pakistan government or Pakistan army have no control. In such a situation, it is not surprising that all this is happening. Pakistan is on the verge of breaking up,” Vaid said while speaking to news agency ANI.

The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that they derailed the train, killed six security personnel, and took over 100 passengers — including Pakistani soldiers — hostage. However, no independent confirmation of their claim has been made. 

Vaid further added that terrorist groups from Balochistan and Sindh have now joined forces, directly challenging Pakistan’s sovereignty. “All the terrorist organizations of Balochistan and Sindh have come together, and they are challenging the sovereignty of the Pakistan government and Pakistan army. I will not be surprised if Pakistan breaks into four pieces,” he said.

Major Gen GD Bakshi: ‘Time for the birth of Balochistan has come’

Retired Major General GD Bakshi echoed similar concerns, stating that Pakistan has lost control over Balochistan and that the train hijack marks a significant escalation. “Balochistan is out of the control of Pakistan… There is demoralisation in the Pakistan Army. The train hijack in Balochistan is very significant. A train has 450-500 people, and they have taken them as hostages,” he said.

Bakshi warned that Pakistan's military might struggle to conduct a precision rescue operation, predicting a botched attempt that could lead to civilian casualties. “I don’t think that the Pakistan Army could carry out such operations without casualties. These are precision operations which our NSG carries out very well, but the Pak Army has a style to show off and bring major artillery...I think the Pakistan Army will carry out a ham-handed operation which may kill many civilians,” he remarked. He also suggested that Pakistan’s disintegration was now a real possibility, stating, “I think the time for the birth of Balochistan has come.”

West Asia Strategist: ‘Baloch insurgents are fighting against Pakistan’s oppression’

West Asia Strategist Waiel Awwad provided further insight, stating that the BLA claims to be fighting against Pakistan’s forced annexation of Balochistan after Partition. “Balochistan Liberation Army has claimed the hijacking of a Pakistani train with more than 100 soldiers… They have been releasing the children and the elderly women and are negotiating with the Pakistani authorities,” he said.

According to Awwad, Pakistan’s oppressive policies against the Baloch people have fueled the insurgency. “Balochistan feels that Pakistan has occupied and annexed Balochistan province into Pakistan after Partition… They believe that they have been oppressed. All the oppression of the Baloch people led to their fighting against the Pakistan Army,” he explained.

He also noted that a global call for a Baloch movement has been issued for March 28, signaling an intensification of resistance against the Pakistan government.

Jaffar Express Attack: What We Know So Far

The attack on Jaffar Express occurred between Pehro Kunri and Gadalar, where gunmen opened fire, injuring several passengers. The train, carrying around 500 people, was stopped in a tunnel and taken over by Baloch militants. BLA claims they derailed the train, killed six Pakistani security personnel, and took over 100 hostages.

Pakistan Army has launched an operation using drones and military force. The BLA has warned that if the Pakistan military intervenes, hostages will be executed. Emergency measures have been declared in Balochistan, and hospitals have been put on alert. Balochistan has seen a sharp rise in terror attacks over the past year, with insurgent groups frequently targeting security forces and infrastructure.

In November 2024, a suicide bombing at Quetta Railway Station killed 26 people and injured 62.