Rainfall prediction: India likely to receive above average monsoon in 2024, says govt

Rainfall prediction: India is expected to receive above average monsoon in 2024, said the government. This comes as positive news for farm production, as well as a relief to many regions that are currently reeling under heatwave. 

M Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said in a news conference that the monsoon is expected to total 106 per cent of the long-term average this year. The monsoon usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala around June 1, and retreats in mid-September. 

As per the India Meteorological Department average or normal rainfall ranges between 96-104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season. 

Ravichandran said that La Nina weather conditions are seen developing during the second half of 2024 monsoon season. 

However, he also said that some parts of northwest, west and northeastern parts of India likely to receive below average monsoon in 2024. 

IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said El Nino was weakening and would enter a neutral stage by the time the monsoon sets in. La Nina would then set in by August, he said.

In 2023, India experienced below-normal rainfall, leading to diminished reservoir levels and negatively affecting food production. In response, the government imposed restrictions on the export of essential commodities such as sugar, rice, onions, and wheat. The country now urgently requires adequate monsoon rains, which could stimulate both agricultural and broader economic growth. This could also help to reduce food price inflation, which has been exceeding the central bank's comfort level for several months, thereby deterring it from reducing lending rates.