Sushant Sareen: 'Agnipath has serious issues, but India can't be spending huge amounts on pensions'

Chorus for some tweaks in the Agnipath scheme has intensified, with some retired military officers pointing to drawbacks in the new recruitment scheme for the armed forces. Two retired navy chiefs - Arun Prakash and Karambir Singh - have suggested that the Agnipath scheme may degrade the Indian army's combat effectiveness as soldiers -  recruited for four years under the new scheme - won't have enough training in a shorter duration. 

"A lot of attention is (rightly) being focused on in-service disparities and poor post-demob prospects of young Agniveers. But is anyone worried about the huge operational handicap imposed on combat units, forced to accept barely trained recruits, fit only for sentry duties??" Prakash said in a tweet on July 2. 

Prakash, in an opinion piece published recently, also said that in the case of the Navy and Air Force, at least 5-6 years are required before a new entrant can acquire enough hands-on experience to be entrusted with the operation or maintenance of lethal weapon systems and complex machinery and electronics.

KB Singh, who served as chief of the naval staff from 2019 to 2021, said that it seemed the only motivation driving the Agnipath was reducing the pension bill.

Prakash underscored that economics takes a back seat when it comes to national security. "The sole litmus test for ANY change or reform in the military must be: "Does it enhance or degrade combat effectiveness?" 

Sushant Sareen, a noted security analyst and senior fellow at ORF, however, said economics cannot be entirely divorced from national security. While admitted there were some issues with the new scheme, he suggested that the government can't afford higher pension bills anymore. 

"A balance has to be found," he said, "else you end up without an economy and with no nation to secure - ask the Soviets." "There are issues, serious ones with Agnipath. These need to be fixed. But we can't be spending huge amounts on pensions that will bankrupt the state - pl take a look at Pakistan," Sareen said.

A social media user asked Sareen what exactly was the definition of "huge amounts for a $5 trillion economy", suggesting that India can afford the current level of pension. 

Sareen responded, saying the size of the economy and the fiscal space are two different things. The metric to watch out for is how much is the outgo on pensions and the future projections, he said. "Also, compare pension spends with how much of the defence budget is being spent on salaries. Finally, we are still not a $5 trillion economy. Even if we were, it wouldn't change the fundamental economics numbers of pension burden which will become unaffordable if not reformed."

In November 2020, India Today reported that the government spent more on paying pensions than on purchasing military hardware. The 2020 defence budget allocated Rs 1.3 lakh crore to defence pensions and Rs 1.1 lakh crore to buying military hardware like fighter jets, tanks and warships.

A research paper published by Manohar Parrikar Defence Institute in February 2020 said that the share of the defence pension had increased the most, and together with P&A (Pay and Allowances) accounted for 61 per cent of the Defence Ministry's total budget in 2020-21, up from 49 per cent in 2011-12.  

More significantly, the paper stated, nearly the entire increase in the pension's share had come at the cost of capital procurement, which together with stores had dwindled by 11 percentage points from 36 per cent in 2011-12 to 25 per cent in 2020-21.

"In other words, the fast rise in the pension expenditure has a significant crowding out effect on the stores and modernisation, two major components that determine a nation’s war-fighting ability. This does not augur well for India's defence preparedness," said the paper, authored by Group Captain (Retd.) Vinay Kaushal and Laxman Kumar Behera, Research Fellow at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies.

Under the Agnipath scheme, the defence ministry has been recruiting youth in the armed forces for four years. Those recruited under the Agnipath scheme is called Agniveers. After four years, 25% of each batch of Agniveers will be enrolled in a regular cadre, while 75% will return to civilian jobs. The Centre has promised that 10% of all vacancies in the central armed police forces or the paramilitary will be reserved for Agniveers.