UP bypolls turnaround? Exit polls predict big gains for BJP, major setback for Samajwadi Party

Exit polls have predicted significant gains for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Uttar Pradesh bypolls, where voting was conducted on Wednesday for nine assembly seats. Matrize has projected the BJP winning 7 seats, with the remaining 2 going to the Samajwadi Party (SP) led by Akhilesh Yadav. Another survey by JVC predicts the BJP will secure 6 seats, while SP is likely to win 3.  

If these projections hold, it would mark a dramatic turnaround for the saffron party, which held only 4 of these 9 seats in 2022. It would also be a setback for the SP, which just six months ago shocked the BJP by claiming 37 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. That stunning performance by the INDIA bloc reshaped the political discourse in the state and intensified pressure on UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath.  

Today, voting was held in Katehari, Karhal, Mirapur, Ghaziabad, Majhawan, Sisamau, Khair, Phulpur, and Kundarki. In the 2022 assembly elections, the SP won in Sisamau, Katehari, Karhal, and Kundarki, while the BJP claimed Phulpur, Ghaziabad, Majhawan, and Khair. The Mirapur seat was previously won by the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), then an SP ally.  

In the current bypolls, the voter turnout was approximately 49.3%, significantly lower than the 61.03% recorded during the 2022 assembly elections. Ghaziabad reported the lowest turnout at 33%, while Kundarki saw the highest at 57.7%.  

Eight of the nine seats fell vacant after their incumbent MLAs were elected to the Lok Sabha earlier this year. The Sisamau seat is witnessing a bypoll due to the disqualification of SP MLA Irfan Solanki, following his conviction in a criminal case.  

This is the first electoral contest in Uttar Pradesh after the Lok Sabha polls, making it a crucial test for all parties.  

The Congress, a key ally of the INDIA bloc, did not field its candidates and backed the Samajwadi Party. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is contesting independently on all nine seats. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has fielded candidates in Ghaziabad, Kundarki, and Mirapur. Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) is also contesting on all seats except Sisamau.