Waqf, caste census, Baramati: Ajit Pawar goes quiet on uncle Sharad, another U-turn ahead?

Ajit Pawar, who orchestrated a dramatic split in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) last year, has gone quiet on uncle Sharad Pawar, sparking a buzz about his next move, which could hinge on the outcome of the upcoming elections in Maharashtra. On critical issues such as the Waqf Amendment Act and the caste census, Ajit Pawar has diverged from his current alliance partner - the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Ajit wants broader deliberations on Waqf amendments and caste census done at least once to settle the debate as to what community stands where in terms of their population. His stand on both issues goes with the Opposition, which wants the withdrawal of the Waqf Amendment Act, and the nationwide caste census.

The Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister, while speaking on the Waqf Bill, also said that his party will not let any injustice happen to minorities. "NCP has decided that if you (Muslims) have any concerns regarding this bill, then we will listen to your concerns. We will not let any injustice happen to minorities. We will not let injustice happen to anyone," he said while speaking at NCP's Jan Sanman Yatra in Dhule.

Before taking a stand on caste census and Waqf, Ajit Pawar gave the first biggest signal of his changing tack when he said fielding his wife Sunetra Pawar against Supriya Sule, daughter of NCP-SP President Sharad Pawar, in Baramati was a mistake. While this admission appeared sincere, many analysts view it as a calculated step to pave the way for a possible return to the NCP fold if the situation arises.

When asked whether his statement may confuse the NDA workers, Ajit Pawar said there was little to read into it and that it was just a "family matter".  

Ajit Pawar, who was very vocal about his uncle Sharad Pawar after joining the Mahayuti, has also gone silent on the NCP-SP chief. Sharad Pawar recently said that the party will decide Ajit Pawar's return to the party fold. When asked whether Sharad Pawar's statement indicated doors were open for him, Ajit Pawar said: "No comments." 

"I am currently campaigning for the Mahayuti. I have introduced several good schemes in the Budget, and we are informing people about them," junior Pawar said when pressed further on what he thinks about Sharad Pawar's statement on his return. 

Ajit Pawar's bland response to a specific question also points to the softening up of his stand against his uncle. In press briefings after joining the NDA, the deputy chief minister openly targeted the senior Pawar, saying the latter on many occasions wanted to join the NDA but backtracked at the final moments. 

The NCP chief even said that it was Sharad Pawar's idea to extend support to the BJP in 2024 to keep Shiv Sena out of power. In 2014, the BJP alone had secured 122 seats and needed 23 more to form a government on its own.

"In 2014, we were against the BJP but we supported the BJP from outside that you should form the government. We had asked about this, after which he (Sharad Pawar) said that this is a strategy to keep Shiv Sena away," Ajit Pawar had told news agency ANI.  

Another factor that may play a role in Ajit's future decision is his party's absence in the Modi Cabinet. The NCP was offered a MoS post, but it declined.  

NCP in Mahayuti

The BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena appear to be going cold on the prospects of the NCP, as the party failed to make a mark in the Lok Sabha elections. The ruling Mahayuti could win only 17 of 48 seats. Out of 4 seats contested, the NCP could win only 1 - the worst strike rate among Mahayuti partners. 

The results showed that the NCP voters stuck to Sharad Pawar. Now BJP and Sena would want to get a majority on their own as they can not rely on Ajit Pawar considering the current equation. For that, BJP and Sena will have to contest the majority of seats - another possible friction point for Mahayuti. 

Ajit Pawar recently met Home Minister Amit Shah and demanded 80–90 seats for the NCP. However, with the Shiv Sena demanding no less than 100 seats, this leaves fewer than 100 seats for the BJP, a scenario the saffron party is unlikely to accept.

In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP contested 260 seats, winning 122. In 2019, in alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, the party contested 152 seats and bagged 105. To repeat its past success, the BJP would need to contest over 150 of the 288 seats, squeezing Ajit Pawar's chances within the Mahayuti.

Ajit Pawar may go solo? 

In June this year, NCP (SP) leader Rohit Pawar claimed the saffron party might offer only 20 seats to Ajit Pawar, and the latter could then walk out of the alliance. He also claimed that it may be part of the strategy as the BJP wants Ajit Pawar to go solo in the Maharashtra assembly elections. "To keep Ajit Pawar out may be a strategy of the BJP, or both BJP and Ajit Pawar. He may contest separately to divide the Opposition's votes, especially those of the NCP (SP). But the people and the MLAs in Ajit Pawar's party are not fools," he said.