Who wins Lok Sabha 2024 elections? Modi-led BJP takes lead in pre-poll survey

The BJP commands a 12 percent lead over the opposition's INDI alliance ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, according to a pre-poll survey by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
According to the survey, four out of 10 voters support BJP. Congress is also expected to make slight gains but is unlikely to pose a significant threat.

The Modi factor continues to play a major role in providing the NDA with its advantage. However, livelihood-related issues are emerging as major concerns in this election. Dissatisfaction over unemployment and inflation among sections of the society indicates that a tough fight is on the cards, a report from The Hindu quoted the survey.

Close to 48 percent of voters continue to back Modi as their choice for Prime Minister in the pre-poll survey, while just 27 percent chose Congress MP Rahul Gandhi.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Modi guarantee' gave him an advantage over Rahul Gandhi's guarantees. Close to 56 percent of the respondents trust “a lot” or “somewhat” Modi’s guarantees, with 49 percent saying the same about Gandhi’s guarantees. Notably, Modi’s guarantees were trusted more by the richer households, while the middle class placed similar trust in both.

Over half of the respondents expressed satisfaction with the BJP's 10-year-old government performance, indicating positive inclinations towards giving the Modi government another chance.

The construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya resonates strongly among voters, particularly NDA supporters, with one in three respondents choosing the temple construction as the “most admired work" of Modi.

According to the pre-poll survey, inflation and increasing unemployment are significant concerns among voters. Despite economic distress, BJP maintains its lead, indicating voter sentiments may not align solely with economic performance, presenting a fascinating aspect of the upcoming election.

Despite maintaining a lead, there's a decline in satisfaction with the government's performance compared to 2019. Urban areas show lower support for another term.

While a significant share of people continues to be satisfied with the NDA government, the numbers have come down compared to the 2019 pre-poll survey. Before the 2019 polls, 65 percent said they were “somewhat” or “fully” satisfied with the government. In 2024, the share of such respondents has come down to 57 percent. The share of those “somewhat” or “fully” dissatisfied has increased from 30 percent to 39 percent. Notably, the degree of satisfaction was markedly lower among the southern regions compared to the north and the west.

Overall, the survey indicates that the BJP is heading into the 2024 elections with a healthy lead, although questions about its performance have left the field open.

The Lokniti-CSDS Pre-Poll survey 2024 collated responses from 10,019 people across 19 states.