Why is November in Delhi unusually hot? IMD explains reason behind this delay in winter chills

As November progresses, residents of Delhi are experiencing unusually warm weather, with average temperatures hovering around 28 degrees Celsius. Despite the recent celebration of Diwali and predictions of a harsh winter following an exceptionally hot summer, the anticipated winter chill has yet to make its presence felt.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the wait for typical winter temperatures may extend longer than originally expected. A recent two-week forecast from the IMD has dampened hopes for a swift decline in temperatures, suggesting that the capital may not experience the usual seasonal shift for some time.

Why is winter delayed?

October 2024 marked the hottest October in 74 years, and the warming trend shows little sign of abating. Current forecasts predict that November temperatures will remain 4 to 6 degrees Celsius above average, with daytime highs unlikely to drop below 30 degrees Celsius until at least the month's third week.

This absence of the expected chill can be attributed to a lack of Western Disturbances—weather systems that typically bring cooler, rainier conditions to North India. Since the monsoon concluded in October, Delhi and its surrounding plains have not seen any of these disturbances, resulting in approximately 80% less rainfall than usual and contributing to the warmer, drier conditions.

Global climate influences

The situation is further complicated by global climate phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina, which are affecting regional weather patterns. El Nino, which is associated with warmer temperatures, was anticipated to diminish this winter but has remained in a neutral state. Meanwhile, La Nina, which could potentially bring cooler weather, may develop between November and December, though there is uncertainty regarding its timing and strength.

The IMD's forecast suggests that while a weak Western Disturbance is expected between November 16 and 21, its effects will likely be limited to the upper Himalayas, leaving Delhi largely unaffected.

As the warmth persists, residents of Delhi must prepare for a delayed winter. The shifting climate patterns indicate that warmer November may become the norm in the years to come, altering the capital's seasonal rhythms. For now, Delhi remains in an extended autumn, patiently awaiting the arrival of winter's chill.

(With input from Kumar Kunal)