Sun Pharma, Cipla, Dr Reddy's, Lupin in race for slice of a $100 billion a year pie

Sun Pharma, Cipla, Dr Reddy's and Lupin are aiming to grab a slice of the burgeoning weight-loss treatment sales pie, both at home and abroad They have started developing their own versions of Novo Nordisk's wildly in demand Wegovy.

With some analysts predicting a weight-loss market reaching $100 billion a year or more by the end of the decade, executives at Indian pharma firms have started work on Wegovy versions.

Novo Nordisk, according to Reuters report, has been unable to produce enough Wegovy to meet demand in more than half a dozen countries where it has already launched, amid record global obesity rates and people looking for easier alternatives to diet and exercise. 

US rival Eli Lilly likewise has been unable to meet demand for its weight-loss drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro.

Novo has not provided a clear timeline for introducing Wegovy globally, but told Reuters it aims to launch in India in 2026.

The move by Indian drugmakers could go a long way toward improving global access to weight-loss drugs and make them far more affordable, analysts said.

"We expect volume expansion to increase multi-fold by the time patent expires, which is a few years from now," Systematix analyst Vishal Manchanda said. "They will also be available at a much lower price by generic drugmakers."

"There is big potential in India... given the lifestyle choices," Cipla Global CEO Umang Vohra said in a post-earnings call in January.

India has high obesity rates, especially among women, and has the world's second highest number of people with type 2 diabetes, trailing only China. Around 11% of adults in India will be obese by 2035, according to the World Obesity Federation Atlas.

Novo's patents for Wegovy, given as a weekly injection, expire in China in 2026, in Japan and Europe in 2031, and in the U.S. in 2032, according to its annual report.

The Danish drugmaker is the sole patent holder of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and diabetes treatment Ozempic, which are not yet approved in India. It declined to comment on when its patent would expire in India.Sun Pharma is working on its own experimental drug to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity. Others are taking a more traditional generic drug path.

"Dr. Reddy's and Cipla are making a copy of the innovator drug more like a generic version, while Sun is working on its own innovator drug. So, Sun will have to do clinical trials. Its drug will be novel and patented," Manchanda said.