Mark Zuckerberg's Facebook will disappear like Yahoo by 2020: Analyst

Facebook will disappear in the coming five to eight years if a hedge fund manager is to be believed. A world without Facebook sounds unbelievable, but not to Ironfire Capital founder Eric Jackson.

"In five to eight years, they are going to disappear in the way that Yahoo has disappeared. Yahoo is still making money. It's still profitable, still has 13,000 employees working for it. But it now has 10 per cent of the value that it once had in 2000. For all intents and purposes, it's disappeared," he said.

Jackson noted that so far there have been three generations of Internet companies. "Yahoo, a Web portal, is a great example as an online pioneer. Facebook then swept in as the second generation with the wave of social media. The third generation is all about mobile," he said.

While his assertion raised a ruckus in the online media this week, other industry analysts wouldn't be shocked if the prediction comes true.

Facebook's February initial public offering (IPO) filing revealed that the social network had more than 425 million monthly active mobile users last December, or about half of its worldwide user base, analysts said.

But while that number might be impressive, those users are not making Facebook any money at this point.

Mark Zuckerberg-founded Facebook has moved to address concerns that it is not doing enough to satisfy mobile phone users buying Instagram for $1 billion and hiring the development team behind the Lightbox Android photo application.


Jackson thinks the social network's mobile woes will continue despite those moves.

"Facebook can buy a bunch of mobile companies, but [it is] still a big, fat Website, and that's different from a mobile app," he said.

One of the problems for Facebook is that the company has not been able to monetise its burgeoning mobile base. Company executives even raised the issue in its pre-IPO filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). And that could really hold the company back and give others a chance to flourish in its place.

"Look at how Google has struggled moving into social, and I think Facebook is going to have the same kind of challenges moving into mobile."

Software problems had occurred as Facebook's stock began trading last month. The website has been in centre of the storm of enquiry around the botched $16 billion IPO as its shares have plunged more than 30 per cent from their offering price.

With PTI inputs