Morgan Stanley sees India GDP growth at 6.3 per cent in 2015

The country's gross domestic product is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2015, registering the fastest economic expansion among Asian countries, according to Morgan Stanley forecasts of global economies.

The rupee-dollar exchange rate would be at Rs 62.2 by end of 2015 compared to Rs 62 in October-December period, according to a presentation made at the Morgan Stanley's Annual Asia Pacific Summit held in Singapore from November 12-14.

The exchange rate is seen at Rs 62.5 in the first half of 2015 and at Rs 62.3 in the July-september period of 2015.

Comparative to other Asian GDP growths, the domestic economy would have the fastest expansion, Morgan Stanley said in its report.

The country's GDP is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2015, up from 5.3 in 2014, the report said.

"We are constructive on the INR from the outlook perspective," Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist, told PTI.

Strong capital inflows and the sub-2 per cent current account deficit would add upward pressure on the domestic currency. Reforms are providing confidence in the economic growth of the country, the financial services major said in its report.

The government's policy action to improve business environment and lower oil prices are among the factors supporting the GDP growth, Ahya said.

Structural reforms related to land, labour and tax would support the economy's growth in the coming years. Any disruption to execution and delivery of reforms as well as a slowdown in exports would be a risk, the economist pointed out.

On imports, the lower oil prices have been helpful and supporting the economic growth. Oil imports were down at 4 per cent of the GDP now from 6 per cent in 2012.

"It is obviously helping the recovery process," Ahya said.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has forecast a sub-par global growth at 3.5 per cent in 2015, up nominally from 3.1 per cent in 2014. Among Asian economies, China's GDP is forecast to contract to 7.1 per cent in 2015 from 7.3 per cent in 2014.

Excluding Japan's GDP, the financial services firm says, Asian GDP would grow to 6.3 per cent in 2015, up marginally from 6 per cent in 2014. Japan's GDP growth would be stagnant at 0.8 per cent in 2014 and 2015.

Around 1,700 delegates including representatives of 300 global corporations are attending the Annual Asia Pacific Summit.