'Everyone's jumping on a screenshot': No, India is not a $4 trillion economy yet

India’s gross domestic product is still some way away from reaching $4 trillion but economists say the milestone may not be too far away.

According to the Union Budget 2023-24, India’s nominal GDP is projected to reach Rs 301.75 lakh crore, registering a growth rate of 10.5% from an estimated Rs 272.41 lakh crore in fiscal year 2022-23. In US dollar terms, this would translate to a GDP of $ 3.63 trillion in the current fiscal year.

“A $ 4 trillion economy does not seem likely in the current situation. It would translate into nominal GDP of about Rs 330 lakh crore, which may be possible with a 10 per cent growth in 2024-25,” said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda.

On Sunday, screenshots of an image indicating that India’s GDP has risen to $4 trillion went viral on social media and prompted many to welcome the development, noting that India may soon become the third-largest economy in the world.

There was no official confirmation or denial of this. India’s official GDP estimates are released by the National Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation per a scheduled calendar. The official projections are used by all agencies including international agencies.

The first advance estimates of GDP for the fiscal year 2023-24 that will also include projections of nominal GDP growth will be available in early January, ahead of the Interim Budget 2024-25. This would then be followed by the second advance estimates in February and the first provisional estimates in May.

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Economists and experts however, questioned the data being shared on social media and pointed out that real time predictions are often misleading.

“I am surprised how everyone is jumping on a screenshot. India on a rolling basis won’t hit $4 trillion till late 2024-early 2025. This fiscal year (2023-24) India’s nominal GDP is expected to be around Rs 300 [lakh crore], which implies a GDP of about $ 3.65 trillion on present exchange rates,” said Rahul Bajoria, MD & Head of EM Asia (ex-China) Economics, Barclays on his personal X account (formerly known as Twitter). 

Deepak Shenoy, Founder and CEO, Capitalmind, also said on X, “India’s GDP isn’t yet $4 trillion, unfortunately. We are about $3.38 trillion as of June, and possibly $3.45 trillion now, at best.” 

Official data on GDP estimates for the second quarter of the fiscal will be released at the month end.  

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