'Friction may escalate swiftly': US intel warns of possible conflict between India-China, India-Pakistan

The American intelligence community has told US lawmakers that it anticipates increased tension between India and China and India and Pakistan, with a possibility of conflict. The US intelligence also said that under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely to respond with military force than in the past to ‘perceived or real’ provocations from Pakistan. 

The annual threat assessment of US intelligence was submitted to the US Congress and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence during a Congressional hearing. 

INDIA-CHINA

India and China have been engaged in bilateral border talks to resolve border point issues, following the clash between troops of both countries in 2020 – which was said to be the most serious in decades. 

The US intelligence community said that the expanded military postures by India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to US citizens. Previous standoffs and low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) have the potential to escalate swiftly, it added. 

India has said that its ties with China cannot be normal till there is peace at the border. 

INDIA-PAKISTAN

The conflict with Pakistan is also of importance because of the risk of escalation between the two nuclear states. Both New Delhi and Islamabad renewed a ceasefire along the Line of Control in early 2021. 

It cautioned about Pakistan’s “long history of supporting anti-India militant groups”, which is more likely than ever to be responded with military force by PM Modi. “Each side's perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints," said the US intelligence. 

India and Pakistan have been at loggerheads over the Kashmir issue and cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan. India has often said that terrorism and talks cannot go together.

Meanwhile, Pakistan and the US have held a round of counterterrorism dialogue that included discussions on counter-terrorism cooperation at multilateral forums, assessment of the regional counterterrorism landscape, cyber security and countering violent extremism.

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