Govt projects GDP growth estimates at 9.2% for FY22

India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may grow 9.2% in the financial year 2021-2022 as compared to the contraction of 7.3 per cent in 2020-21, mainly due to improvement in the performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors, showed government's first advance estimates on Friday. 

This is below the 9.5 per cent projection by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Releasing the first advance estimates of National Income for 2021-22, the National Statistical Office (NSO) stated, ''The growth in real GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 9.2 per cent as compared to the contraction of 7.3 per cent in 2020-21.''

The real GVA is estimated at ₹135.22 lakh crore in 2021-22, as against ₹124.53 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth of 8.6%, it added.

FY22 nominal GDP growth estimate at 17.6%, it stated.

Advance estimates are released to provide the numbers to the finance ministry to work on the Budget for the next financial year.

RBI had projected a GDP growth rate of 9.5% for the current financial year with inflation seen at 5.3%.

With one quarter still left in the fiscal year, there has been a surge in daily COVID-19 cases in recent days driven by the Omicron variant which is set to overtake Delta as the dominant strain. This has prompted fresh restrictions in several parts of the country, threatening the fragile economic recovery.

Risks to the economy stem from an Omicron-led third wave which may upend growth revival across sectors, specially the contact-intensive services industries.

World Bank has been the most conservative, projecting an 8.3 per cent growth rate while OECD put it at 9.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, the finance ministry's Economic Survey in February last year had projected an 11 per cent growth rate for 2021-22.

The growth estimate for India is higher than 8 per cent projected for China.

As per NSO estimates, GDP in actual terms in 2021-22 will surpass the pre-COVID level of Rs 145.69 lakh crore in 2019-20.

The economy registered an 8.4 per cent growth in the second quarter of the current fiscal (FY22), as per the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on November 30.