GST collection in July likely to go up on pent-up demand, rising e-way bills

After dipping below Rs 1-lakh crore mark in June, the monthly GST revenue is likely to witness buoyancy in the coming months on the back of the growth witnessed in the e-way bills in June and July.

The pent-up demand in the wake of the ebbing second wave of Covid-19 is expected to give a leg-up to the monthly revenue collection in the coming months.    

Till July 18, a total of 3.56 crore e-way bills were issued against 5.47 crore issued in June this year. In an indication of an economic recovery, the average daily e-way bill generation in July is 8 per cent higher at 1.97 crore compared with 1.82 crore in June.

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The number of e-way bills issued to date this month is close to almost 54 per cent of the total e-way bills issued in the high base month of June, which witnessed a sequential hike of 37 per cent.

Under the GST laws, a registered supplier can’t transport goods over Rs 50,000 without the generation of an e-way bill. The bill is, therefore, an instrument for tracking the supply.    

In May, the second Covid-19 wave and the ensuing local lockdowns impacted the economic activity, as a result of which only 3.99 crore e-way bills were generated in the month.

Also read: June GST collection may miss Rs 1 lakh crore-mark for first time in eight months

The government expects revenue buoyancy in the GST collection to kick in from this month. “With the June e-way bills registering close to 37 per cent growth sequentially from May and higher daily average in July, a significant upside is expected in the July GST revenue collection as well as the collection in the coming months. The pent-up demand will also help revive the revenues,” a finance ministry official said.

The GST revenue of a particular month reflects the transactions done in the previous month. The June GST revenue slipped below the Rs 1 lakh crore for the first time in eight months as localised lockdowns and uncertainty due to the second Covid-19 wave led to disruption in the economic activity.

The GST revenue in June was at Rs 92,849 crore, down from Rs 1,02,709 crore in May. The GST collection hit a record high at Rs 1.41 lakh crore in April but lost steam in the coming months due to the second Covid-19 wave.

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