India Q4 GDP numbers today: Another blockbuster release before the big election verdict on June 4?

India's GDP growth in January-March is likely to be like the preceding quarter’s blowout 8.4% expansion that took many economists by surprise, an official in the statistics ministry has claimed. 

"The last quarter print had surprised everyone. This time again the print will shock all forecasters," the official told Informist on the condition of anonymity. 

"Professional forecasters keep getting India's GDP growth wrong. This time will be no different," the official said. An economic growth of close to 8% in the fiscal year that ended in March will be a boost to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government as elections come to a close.  India’s rapid growth makes it the fastest-expanding major economy in the world, standing in stark contrast with global growth that’s likely to reach about 3% this year. 

PM Modi has pinned the economy’s performance on the pledge to continue investing in infrastructure and other growth-supporting programs if he returns to office for a third term. 

“The Indian economy has exhibited remarkable resilience despite higher-rates-for-longer, Russia-Ukraine war and Covid prior to that,” Kaushik Das, chief economist for India at Deutsche Bank AG, wrote in a note. However, the strong growth rate could also be “attributed materially” to how it has been calculated, he said. 

Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, said no matter which party forms the government in June, India’s growth will stay robust. There may not be “any significant change in the broad direction of policy irrespective of political party,” she said. 

Stronger growth means the Reserve Bank of India will have reason to keep interest rates unchanged for longer, given inflation is still above its 4% target and the US Federal Reserve has delayed its policy easing. Economists including from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have pushed back their rate-cut forecasts for India to later this year as the US keeps rates higher for longer.