India’s GDP data gets an earlier release time: What is the new time and what made the Centre do this?

In a shift aimed at aligning with market hours, the Government of India announced Friday that quarterly GDP estimates will now be released at 4:00 PM IST, moving up from the previous 5:30 PM slot.

This decision follows a similar timing change for inflation and Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, also moved to 4:00 PM. Previously, GDP estimates from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) were shared at 5:30 PM on the last day of each quarter.

The government explained that the new timing aligns with the close of major financial markets, reducing potential disruptions during active trading hours. A media release emphasized that the adjustment also reflects MoSPI’s dedication to transparency and accessibility in its data dissemination.

As the release time changes, economic forecasts remain in focus. Economists at SBI, the country’s largest lender, project Q2 real GDP growth will further slow to 6.5% for the September quarter. This follows a 6.7% growth in April-June, marking the lowest in 15 quarters. Analysts have since adjusted their expectations for fiscal growth below 7%, with some speculating a cyclical slowdown might be underway.

SBI economists pointed to “incipient pressure” on India’s domestic economy, citing their analysis of 50 leading indicators. The data showed a plausible dip across sectors like agriculture, industry, and services in Q2. Demand, while still growing, displayed slower momentum than in prior quarters, with only 69% of indicators showing acceleration in Q2 FY25, compared to 80% a year prior.

Despite the slowdown, SBI analysts see this as a “temporary impasse” and anticipate a potential recovery from the December quarter onwards. The next GDP report is scheduled for November 29, covering the July-September quarter of FY 2024-25, set for release at 4:00 PM.