Life expectancy set to increase globally. Can India create more jobs, policies for its older population?

Men globally are expected to live 4.9 years longer, and women 4.2 years longer, by 2050 compared to 2022, showed the latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, published in The Lancet's May edition.
 
In India, females' life expectancy is expected to rise from 73.3 years in 2022 to 75.7 years in 2030 and 79.8 years in 2050, reflecting an increase of 2.4 years by 2030 and 6.5 years by 2050. Similarly, males are projected to experience an increase, with life expectancy rising from 69.6 years in 2022 to 72.0 years in 2030 and 76.2 years in 2050, marking an increase of 2.4 years by 2030 and 6.6 years by 2050.

Furthermore, Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at birth, which estimates the average number of years a person can expect to live in "full health," is forecasted to improve. For females, HALE is anticipated to increase from 61.4 years in 2022 to 63.3 years in 2030 and 65.9 years in 2050, indicating an increase of 1.9 years by 2030 and 4.5 years by 2050. Similarly, for males, HALE is projected to rise from 60.8 years in 2022 to 62.7 years in 2030 and 65.5 years in 2050, reflecting an increase of 1.9 years by 2030 and 4.7 years by 2050.

These projections suggest that both males and females in India are set to live longer and healthier lives. However, the data also showed a growing gap between overall life expectancy and HALE, particularly for females.  In 2022, the gap for females is 11.9 years, which is expected to widen to 12.4 years by 2030 and 13.9 years by 2050. For males, this disparity is expected to grow from 8.8 years in 2022 to 9.3 years in 2030 and 10.7 years in 2050.

The increasing gap implies that while life expectancy is on the rise, these additional years may not all be spent in good health. The largest increases in life expectancy are anticipated in countries currently lagging behind, potentially narrowing the global disparity, the research said. 

Dr. Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), emphasized this trend. “In addition to an increase in life expectancy overall, we have found that the disparity in life expectancy across geographies will lessen. This is an indicator that while health inequalities between the highest- and lowest-income regions will remain, the gaps are shrinking, with the biggest increases anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa.”

Key drivers of this upward trend include enhanced public health measures countering cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, and various communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs). However, a significant burden remains due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes and cancer, driven by factors like obesity, high blood pressure, and smoking.

The global average life expectancy at birth is forecasted to rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050. Concurrently, the global healthy life expectancy (HALE) is expected to grow from 64.8 years to 67.4 years. The study suggests a shift from years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLDs), indicating longer lifespans but potentially more years spent in poor health.

Health Economists have said that an increase in life expectancy has significant impacts on both the overall economy and the health economy. In terms of the overall economy, longer life expectancy can result in an extended working age, leading to increased labor supply, productivity, and economic output. 

“People may also save more for longer retirements, leading to higher investment levels in the economy. As individuals live longer, their spending patterns change, with more expenditure on healthcare, leisure, and retirement-related goods and services. This can contribute to economic growth, provided the labor market and economy can adapt to the aging workforce and increased demand for services catering to older adults, such as housing, healthcare, and leisure activities,” said Arup Mitra, Professor of Economics, South Asian University, New Delhi.

On the health economy front, longer life expectancy generally leads to higher healthcare costs, as older adults require more medical care, leading to increased healthcare expenditures. However, this also drives growth in the healthcare sector, creating demand for healthcare services and professionals, and encouraging innovation and investment in medical technologies and pharmaceuticals. 

“Governments may face higher public health expenditures, necessitating reforms in healthcare financing, insurance systems, and pension schemes to manage costs sustainably. There is also a focus on preventive care, wellness programs, and managing chronic conditions to reduce long-term healthcare costs and promote healthy aging,” said Mitra. “It is a significant achievement for countries with lower life expectancy to improve survival rates and converge in terms of life expectancy. However, these countries must prepare to create extensive capacity for old age benefits, strong support systems, and job creation. There can be increased participation of older people in the job market, leading to potential competition between younger and older workers. A great deal of preparation is required to meet the needs of the increased population and labor supply,” said Mitra.