Monsoon prediction: IMD says good monsoon likely in July despite 10% deficiency in June

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that the monsoon is likely to be normal in July across the country, barring a few areas, with above normal temperatures expected throughout the month.  

In a virtual press conference, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the July rains will help wipe out rainfall deficiencies witnessed in June.  

He added that concerns over the performance of southwest monsoon this year have eased,  with rainfall deficiency falling to 10 per cent from 47 per cent a fortnight ago.  

The Met Department predicted that July rains could be around 100 per cent of the benchmark long period average (LPA). 

As many as 16 states and union territories received deficient rainfall in June, with Bihar and Kerala reporting large deficits at 69 per cent and 60 per cent below normal respectively. 

Large states such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana also received less rainfall than what is normal for June, the first month of the south-west monsoon season. 

"The monthly rainfall averaged over the country as a whole during July 2023 is most likely to be normal (94 to 106 per cent of LPA) and most probably within the positive side of the normal," Mohapatra said. 

The long period average (LPA) of rainfall over the country during July based on the data of 1971-2020 is about 280.4 mm. 

However, some parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, Punjab, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu may get “below normal” rainfall in July, which is likely to impact paddy and pulses sowing in these states, IMD said. 

Mohapatra added though El Nino conditions, which adversely impact the monsoon, are likely to develop by the end of July, this could be negated to a large extent by the development of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). 

Earlier, private forecaster Skymet had predicted monsoon precipitation this year could be “below normal” at 94 per cent of the LPA. Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered “normal”. 

India, as a whole, has received “below normal” rainfall of 148.6 millimeter (mm) in June, against the LPA of 165.3 mm, a deficit of 10%. Except for the north-west region, all other regions have recorded deficient rainfall this month. 

The monsoon, after a four years delayed onset over Kerala coast on June 8, has been in the “active” mode since the last one week. 

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