RBI MPC Meet Outcome Highlights: No repo rate cut; FY22 GDP growth seen at 9.5%, CPI pegged lower at 5.3%

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept its key policy rates unchanged for the eighth time in a row and reiterated an accommodative stance that backs sufficient liquidity to keep borrowing costs at low levels. The RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das headed the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the Repo rate unchanged at 4%. It also maintained the FY22 GDP growth forecast at 9.5%. The central bank had last slashed the repo rate by 40 basis points in May 2020 to 4% to boost demand in the COVID-hit economy and since then it has refrained from taking any action on key interest rates. 

 

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10.45 am: RBI MPC Meet: Highlights

 

• Repo rate unchanged at 4%, reverse repo at 3.35 %
• RBI maintains accommodative stance
• FY22 GDP growth projection maintained at 9.5% 
• CPI inflation pegged at 5.3% for the current fiscal year
• Open market operations to continue as needed
• No compulsion for banks to park money in VRRR
• Bond purchases under G-SAP stopped
• Internal ombudsman scheme for non-bank lenders 
• Framework planned for retail digital payments in offline mode
• IMPS limited increased from Rs 2 lakh to Rs 5 lakh
• On-tap special LTRO of three years worth Rs 10,000 crore for small businesses extended till December 31

 

10.39 am: RBI limits IMPS transaction limit to Rs 5 lakh from Rs 2 lakh.

 

10.38 am: RBI to unveil an internal ombudsman scheme for NBFCs.
 

10.32 am: Need for more bond buying through G SAP doesn't arise: Shaktikanta Das

 

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday that the central bank will stop bond purchases under G-SAP. Announcing the bi-monthly MPC outcome, Das added that given the liquidity overhang as well as the absence of fresh government borrowing for GST compensation, the bond buys are not needed. The central bank, however, will continue to carry out open market operations as needed.

 

10.26 am: RBI MPC meet outcome: Inflation update

 

RBI pegs CPI inflation at 5.3% for this fiscal, 5.1% in Q2, 4.5% in Q3, and 5.8% in Q4, with risks broadly balanced.

 

10.23 am: RBI MPC meeting outcome: FY22 inflation projection lowered
 

Q2 inflation figure lowered from 5.9% to 5.1%, Q3 revised  Inflation projection at 4.5% from 5.3%.
 

10.20 am: RBI lowers inflation projection from 5.7 % to 5.1% in 2021-22.

 

10.18 am: RBI MPC Outcome: Q2 GDP revised from 7.3% to 7.9%, Q3 GDP revised from 6.3% to 6.8%, Q4 GDP retained at 6.1%.
 

10.11 am: RBI keeps real GDP projection at 9.5% , No revision in GDP forecast in October policy

 

10.08 am: RBI MPC meeting: MPC voted 5-1 to retain accommodative stance
 

The MPC voted 5-1 to maintain an accommodative stance as long as necessary in order to sustain growth while ensuring that inflation stays within its target.
 

10.05 am: RBI keeps policy rates changed

 

Repo rate unchanged at 4%, reverse repo rate at 3.35%. The central bank also maintains 'accommodative stance'.

 

10.00 am: RBI Governor Shaktikan Das begins policy address, likely to hold key policy rates.

 

9.55 am: RBI MPC meet today: Governor Shaktikanta Das's address to begin shortly.

 

9.52: RBI MPC meeting today: RBI to continue to keep rates on hold: Morgan Stanley

 

"We opine headline CPI to remain range-bound around the 5 per cent mark in the current fiscal year, even as core inflation remains sticky and pressures emanate from higher global commodity prices. We will remain watchful of the RBI's tone and guidance regarding the likely path of policy normalisation. We see the risks of a rate hike (base case in 1Q22) as skewed to delay as growth concerns might dominate given that inflation will likely track below RBI's forecast," according to a Morgan Stanley research report

 

9.48 am: RBI MPC meeting: Inflation

The CPI has demonstrated an easing trend in the recent past. It stood at 5.30% in August 2021, as against 5.9% in July, as food prices eased further, especially vegetable price inflation, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on September 13. Barclays India had on October 6 said it expects CPI inflation to cool to 4.62% on a YoY (year-on-year) basis in September, contingent on corrections in rates of perishables in food basket. The RBI's MPC is expected to take a mild view on inflation.

9.41 am: RBI MPC Meet: Liquidity Management
 

The RBI faces the challenge of managing a timely exit from the easy money regime. As the core liquidity surplus continues close to Rs 12 lakh crore, analysts opine that the central bank is likely to provide a roadmap on liquidity management.

 

9.35 am: RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meet: Growth
 

The central bank may sound optimistic on the economy's growth recovery. Ratings agency Moody's had on October 5 hiked India's sovereign credit rating outlook to stable from negative. It also cited an improvement in the financial sector as well as faster-than-expected recovery across sectors. The MPC had retained the projection for real GDP growth at 9.5% for FY22, while it pegged the real GDP growth for the first quarter of FY23 at 1.2%.

 

9.30 am: RBI MPC Meet: Rate stance

 

The MPC is expected to remain on a pause mode on Friday as it waits for more cues from the growth-inflation front. The economists and analysts are of the view that the RBI will maintain its accommodative stance. However, it may change its forward guidance that points towards gradual normalisation.

 

9.25 am: Inflation, liquidity pressures key concerns for RBI's MPC Committee

 

Inflation is a cause of concern for the six-member RBI MPC, in wake of the record high global crude oil prices. The central bank has pegged the CPI inflation at 5.7% during 2021-22 (FY22), 5.9% in the second quarter of FY22, 5.3% in the third quarter, and 5.8% in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal.