'BJP in Rajasthan, Congress to gain in MP, Telangana, C'garh': Harsh Goenka's 'satta bazar' post on assembly results goes viral

RPG Enterprises chairman Harsh Goenka on Monday shared a poll prediction by 'satta bazar' for Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Telangana will go to polls on November 30, while three other states have already voted and the results will be declared for all four states on Sunday (December 3).  

According to the prediction, the Congress is likely to retain Chhattisgarh and snatch Madhya Pradesh from the BJP. The grand old party is expected to be neck-and-neck with the ruling BRS in Telangana, with projections for both parties at 53 seats each. Telangana has a 119-member Assembly House and a party needs 60 seats to form the government in the state.

If these predictions hold true, this would be a massive setback for Chief Minister and BRS chief K Chandrashekhar Rao, who has been ruling the state since 2014.  

However, in Rajasthan, the Congress under the leadership of Ashok Gehlot may lose the power to the BJP. Rajasthan has a history of rotating government every five years. Going by that tradition, this is the BJP's turn to form the government in Rajasthan. As per satta bazar's prediction, the BJP is likely to bag 115 of 200 seats while Congress may win 68.

For the BJP, losing power in Madhya Pradesh would be a major blow, considering the comeback it had staged in March 2020 with the help of then Congress MP Jyotiraditya Scindia. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is expected to win 106 of 230 seats while Congress is projected to win 117 - one seat more than the required number to form the government.

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In Chhattisgarh, the satta bazar has projected 50 seats for Congress and 37 for the BJP. Here, Congress is expected to form the government but with diminished strength. In 2018, the Congress had won 68 while the BJP had to settle with just 15. The satta bazar's prediction shows that the saffron party may double its seats from the last election.

Goenka's post went viral on social media, with a user asking which satta market - Indore, Phalodi, Bikaner - predicted these numbers. The industrialist said these numbers were from the Phalodi Satta Bazar.

Rishi Choudhary, a social media user, said Rajasthan had undercurrent and "all predictions will fail this time". He said he was on the ground and visited many constituencies. "The predictions will be proved wrong for Rajasthan for sure."

Jimil Gandhi, another user, said that in MP and Rajasthan, high chance that the BJP should come.

Vishnu, another social media user, suggested that satta bazar predictions may not come true as they have been in the past. He said in 2019, famous satta bazaars in Rajasthan predicted 242-245 seats for BJP, while Delhi and Mumbai bazaars projected 238-241. In 2014, he said, various satta Bazars predicted 200-220 seats for the BJP. In both elections, the BJP secured a majority on its own, surprising many.