India vs New Zealand semi-final, WC 2023: Why winning toss is crucial at Mumbai's Wankhede

The stage is set for the mega World Cup 2023 semi-final clash between India and New Zealand at Mumbai's Wankhede Stadium on Wednesday (November 15). While Wankhede has been a batting wicket, this season it has helped the bowlers bowling second, making it difficult for the teams to chase down a good total. Out of four matches at Wankhede this World Cup, teams batting first have won three times while Australia were the only side that bucked the trend after winning against Afghanistan.

If one goes by statistics, chasing has not been easy at the Wankhede pitch in this World Cup. In this season, teams batting first have scored an average of 357 runs while the teams batting second have been able to score only 188 runs. 

A similar trend has been seen in the power-play. In this World Cup, teams that batted first scored an average of 52 runs for one wicket in the power-play while teams batting second could score only 42 for loss of four wickets. Australia were the only team that won at Wankhede batting second in this World Cup, with the help of Glenn Maxwell's freak 201-run knock against Afghanistan.

While chasing has been difficult in this World Cup, this is not the case when one looks at the overall record which shows a slight edge for the teams batting first but does not rule out a chance for the chasing teams. As per overall stats, teams batting first have won 15 times at Wankhede while this number comes down to 12 for teams batting second. Also, the average score by teams batting first at Wankhede is 248 runs while this number is 199 by the sides batting second.

Former cricketer Suresh Raina explained why batting second has been difficult at the Wankhede pitch this season. "Because the match starts at 2 pm. The second team starts around 5:45 pm...(at this time) breeze coming from the Marine Drive...you have a lot of swing and pace," the former cricketer said while speaking to India Today.  

"Wankhede has always been a batting wicket but now we have the best bowling unit, we can change the course of the game because two new balls are not going to be easy for any batting unit. Wankhede brings a lot of quality for batting and for bowling...swing with the new ball and spin with the old ball."

Cricket experts believe that the toss may play a crucial role as the team would like to bat first considering the current conditions at the Wankhede pitch.  

A day before the match, Indian captain Rohit Sharma was asked if the toss would be a factor in the India vs New Zealand semi-final match on Wednesday.  "I have played a lot of cricket here and just 5 or 6 games are not going to tell a lot about what Wankhede is, but I certainly believe that Toss is not a factor," he said.  

The Indian team, which is unbeaten this season, looks favorite against New Zealand, which made it to the semi-final after winning 5 of 9 games. While the Men in Blue look in solid form, the Kiwis cannot be taken lightly as they have better statistics against India in the World Cup matches. In the last World Cup, it was the Black Caps that defeated India in the semi-final, dashing the hopes for the coveted title. 

The Indian skipper on Tuesday said that the New Zealand team is probably the most disciplined in terms of how they want to play the game. "They play their cricket very smartly. They understand the opposition quite well. They have been very consistent for so many years, playing semi-finals and the finals of probably, all ICC tournaments in the last 6-7 years, from 2015 onwards," the skipper said in a pre-match press conference. 

"We do understand what they bring to the table and how they play their cricket. We've been closely following all the teams as to where their strength lies, where their weaknesses lie and based on that, we try and go out there and play the game."