Indian monsoon likely to be 'normal' this year, predicts Skymet

The upcoming Indian monsoons are expected to be normal in 2022, according to Skymet, a private weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company. 

The last two Monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Nina events, which has started shrinking now. It also means that Monsoon 2022 is going to be a devolving La Nina to start with and turn neutral later, Skymet's report ‘Preliminary Monsoon Forecast Guidance for 2022’ stated.

The warm phase of the east and the central Pacific Ocean, periodically seen once in two-seven years, is termed as El Nino and the reverse process of cooling in the same area, is labelled as La Nina. This phenomenon impacts the flow of trade winds, prevalent on either side of the equator. As La Nina gets colder than expected in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, it transports cold air over the Indian subcontinent from Siberia and South China. Occasionally, this cold air may interact with a north-south axis of the deep trough to extend much further south into parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh.

 It is early to decode all the aspects of Monsoon and its arrival, intensity, duration, and withdrawal.

"After observing back-to-back La Nina during 2020 & 2021, the chances of yet another episode is ruled out, statistically. The Sea Surface Temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are likely to rise soon and the probability of continued La Nina will fall," said AVM GP Sharma, President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

Predictability decreases during the upcoming ‘spring barrier’ and at times leads to an unstable El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regime which will get clear in our April forecast, Skymet said. 

"While the monsoon trough is over the South Tropical Indian Ocean,  Indian Ocean Dipole events are typically unable to form till April. Reliable trends of ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’ emerge in the latter half of it. Early indications suggest it to be ‘neutral’ but leaning close to the negative threshold. IOD-ENSO interaction will hold the key to the overall health of Indian Summer Monsoon 2022," added Sharma.