Ranbir-Alia's ‘Brahmastra’ expected to earn Rs 20-22 crore in opening weekend; increase theatre occupancy rates

Bollywood’s long-awaited sci-fi drama Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva, which has been a decade in the making, is three days away from hitting theatres. Needless to say, the film is high on anticipation. Not only does Bollywood need the Dharma Productions offering to set cash registers ringing — after what has been its worst quarter since 2016 — but Brahmastra also needs to buck the ‘boycott’ trend that has afflicted recent big-budget releases like Laal Singh Chaddha.

Analysts tracking the media and entertainment sector expect Brahmastra to rake in Rs 20-22 crore in domestic collections in its opening weekend. Given the exuberant advance bookings recorded by multiplexes, the Ayan Mukerji-directorial could end with lifetime collections of Rs 130-200 crore. That’s a “wide range” but “we believe a positive word of mouth and audience acceptance can help the film breach the upper end,” says Karan Taurani, Senior Vice President, Elara Capital.  “Brahmastra could provide much needed respite in a dismal quarter (Q2FY23),” he adds.

The film, starring Ranbir Kapoor, Alia Bhatt, and Amitabh Bachchan in pivotal roles, is expected to fare strongly in regional markets too. It has been dubbed in multiple South Indian languages and its VFX has already generated a lot of buzz. “The dubbed language collection for Brahmastra may be in the range of 15-20 per cent of the overall net box office,” according to Elara Capital’s estimates.

Additionally, Brahmastra is also expected to breathe life into theatre occupancy rates, which have been abysmal (18-19 per cent) in the months of July and August due to repeated duds churned out by Bollywood. “The month of September may see some respite in case above numbers are reported for Brahmastra, and occupancy may move upwards to 27-28 per cent,” Taurani explains. “Brahmastra can provide support ticket prices/spend per head growth too, as the film is available in multiple premium formats,” he adds. 

Despite the positive buzz in the week leading up to Brahmastra’s release, it might be difficult for the large-scale project to recover its massive cost of production (reportedly Rs 450 crore). Unless satellite and OTT rights for the film sell for a premium, it might go down as another flop in the annals of Hindi cinema. Time will tell!

Also Read: Laal Singh Chaddha, Liger flop: Bollywood in the middle of another crisis

Also Read: ‘Brahmastra’ releases on Sept 9: Here’s how much was spent on this big-budget Ranbir-Alia film