'Bommai didn't learn from Yogi, Himanta': Ex-CEA K Subramanian decodes BJP's defeat in Karnataka

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered a humiliating defeat in Karnataka on Saturday, its only state in southern India. The party failed to retain the state despite all-out efforts by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP's National President JP Nadda, and Home Minister Amit Shah. From the start, it was expected that BJP's numbers may come down as many did not see an effective administrator in chief minister Basavaraj Bommai. Bommai was also hit by a string of corruption charges on his government - the most damaging of all was "40 per cent commission Sarkara".

Also read: Karnataka Result 2023: BJP wins Bengaluru's 'prestigious' Jayanagar seat by 16 votes

While this corruption perception was one of the reasons that struck the saffron party hard in Karnataka, former Chief Economic Advisor Dr Krishnamurthy Subramanian on Saturday said Bommai didn't learn from good examples of Prime Minister Modi, and his counterparts Yogi Adityanath and Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Also read: Karnataka Election Results: BJP loses to Congress, but wins Bengaluru; here's why

After losing the election, Bommai stepped down as chief minister and submitted his resignation to Governor.

Subramanian, who served as chief economic advisor from 2018 to 2021, said that the former chief minister did not learn that anti-incumbency happens when voters are unhappy over the delivery on electoral promises. And pro-incumbency, he said, happens when voters are happy with the socio-economic outcomes.

"CMs like @BSBommai didn’t learn - despite good examples of @narendramodi @myogiadityanath & @himantabiswa to emulate & learn - that: Anti-incumbency= voters UNHAPPY that electoral promises were NOT delivered. Pro-incumbency= voters HAPPY that good socio-economic outcomes were delivered." 

The former CEA said that Indian voters are in general (leaving some exceptions) smart and aspirational. "The lesson from Karnataka is to not take them for granted." 

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UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath returned to power for the second consecutive term in 2022, becoming the only incumbent in the state to come back to power in nearly four decades. Himanta Biswa Sarma, too, returned to power in Assam for the second consecutive term. He was, however, not the chief minister in the first term but his contribution as health minister and as the party's top strategist played a role in bagging the northeastern state for the second time for BJP.

Prime Minister Modi, too, has successfully ducked incumbency as PM and three times as chief minister of Gujarat. But Bommai could not do what Modi did in Gujarat, Yogi did in UP, and Himanta did in Assam. Experts believe that Bommai, who replaced BJP stalwart B S Yeddyurappa in July 2021, was not able to counter the Congress narrative to paint his administration as corrupt, a factor that helped the grand old party surge in Karnataka.

Bommai on Saturday took full responsibility for the BJP's defeat and said Congress' "much organised" election strategy might have been one of the major reasons for its win. "I take responsibility for this BJP's defeat, no one else has the responsibility. As the chief minister of the state, I take the responsibility. There is a need to do the complete analysis of this defeat, as there are various reasons for this," Bommai said.

The former chief minister further said that the party would analyse the performance in every constituency in detail and would try to overcome all the shortcomings. BJP's vote share remained more or less the same as was in the previous election but a sharp decline in JDS's votes favoured the Congress, which bagged 135 of 224 seats.

Commenting on the result, Kaushik Basu, professor of economics at Cornell University and former CEA, said hoped that Congress may come back in power in the Centre. "What Karnataka thinks today, India thinks tomorrow." Subramanian reacted sharply to this, suggesting that it may not happen and the professor will be "royally disappointed". "Keep dreaming Kaushik… will circle back when you & ur ilk will be royally disappointed “tomorrow”!" the former CEA tweeted.