Putin's future in power has become less certain, says Western official

Russian President Vladimir Putin's future in power has become less certain but it is not clear yet when the change will occur, a Western official said on Thursday as per Reuters. 

In power since 1999, Putin has reportedly faced threats of ouster from power many times but he has weathered all such crises. But his longer-than-expected war in Ukraine has once again triggered this speculation that many in the Kremlin - the official complex of the Russian President - are not on the same page and maybe biding for the right time.      

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A Western official has now said Putin's future in power has become less certain in the aftermath of the country's invasion of Ukraine but it isn't possible to predict when any changes in the Kremlin may occur.

"People are talking about succession in a way that they weren't a year ago. But what there isn't, in a place like Russia, is a clear pathway to change," the official told Reuters.  

Russia launched what it calls the 'special military operation' in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Moscow had expected a swift outcome but Kyiv repelled the Russian onslaught with help from Western countries, who ensured a continuing supply of arms and ammunition to defeat Russia.      

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Moscow is approaching the first anniversary of the war, which has drained Russia's resources and caused heavy losses in manpower. According to Reuters, some in Russia's elite fear the war will drag on, draining lives and resources, and Putin's hopes of burnishing his reputation in Russia have been dashed. But he remains secure in power, five senior Russian sources told the international news agency.

The western official further said Putin had been in a much more settled political landscape a year ago before he launched the war, but that was now more uncertain. However, the official said, it was hard to see Putin losing the next presidential elections due in 2024.

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The official further added that while many had believed at the time of a constitutional change in 2020 that Putin would stay in power until the 2030s, that now seemed less likely.

"At that point, my own assessment was that there was a political leadership that we would have for the next decade," the official said. "I think it's much less certain now, but I'm not saying that any change is about to happen imminently," the official was quoted as saying by Reuters. The official added that the timing of any change was "impossible to predict".

In May 2022, Ukraine's Chief of Defence Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov said a coup to remove Vladimir Putin was already underway in Russia. He said that Russia's defeat in Ukraine would lead to the removal of Putin. "It will eventually lead to a change of leadership in the Russian Federation. This process has already been launched and they are moving into that way," the top Ukrainian military officer said while speaking to Sky News.