The four disruptions that are creating a new world order

The British Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and early 19th centuries radically transformed Britain and its role in the world. Today, the world is undergoing an even more profound transformation, driven by four fundamental disruptions. Each of these changes is larger than anything we’ve ever seen individually, and we are seeing all four simultaneously.

Compared to the Industrial Revolution, these disruptions are occurring 10 times faster, at 300 times the scale, and with an impact approximately 3,000 times greater. While we recognise these disruptions, their full magnitude and second- and third-order effects remain underappreciated as these forces amplify one another, interacting and intensifying as they interact.

Together, they are reshaping the global economy in ways that, if managed correctly, could play to India’s strengths, elevating it to the third-largest economy in the world, with Indian companies becoming global leaders.

1. The Age of Urbanisation

The first disruption is the shifting of economic power to emerging markets like China and India and to the cities within them. These countries are undergoing simultaneous industrial and urban revolutions, dramatically moving the centre of global economic activity eastward and southward. As recently as 2000, 95% of the Fortune Global 500-companies like Airbus, IBM, Nestlé, Shell, and Coca-Cola—were headquartered in developed economies. Today, China is vying with the US for the highest number of large companies. Despite its role in global urbanisation, India, with only around 10 Fortune Global 500 companies, lags behind its position as a Top 5 economy.

2. Accelerating Technological Change

The second disruptive force is the rapid pace of technological change. While technology-whether the printing press, steam engine, or the internet-has always reshaped economies, the scale and speed of change today are unprecedented. For example, it took 38 years for radio to reach 50 million listeners. In contrast, Facebook gained 6 million users in its first year and 600 million in just five years. China’s WeChat now boasts 1.3 billion users-more than the populations of North America and Europe combined. The proliferation of data, tools like AI, and technology-driven business models such as e-commerce platforms and ride-sharing apps are amplifying this transformation. India’s strong technology education infrastructure positions it to benefit from this disruption.

3. Ageing Populations

The third disruption is the ageing of the global population. Fertility rates are declining worldwide, especially in developed economies like Japan and Russia, but also in China and soon Latin America. Today, over half of all countries have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. This means the world’s population will plateau or even shrink in many regions. India’s youthful demographic could provide a significant advantage as its working-age population continues to grow, positioning the country to finally reap the benefits of a demographic dividend.

4. Greater Global Connections

The fourth disruption is the increasing interconnectedness of the world. Trade, finance, and the movement of people and data have created a more integrated global economy. Asia is now the world’s largest trading region, and “South-South” trade between emerging markets has doubled over the past decade. Today, around 300 million migrants-3.6% of the world’s population-are contributing to a new phase of globalisation. While this interconnectedness offers vast opportunities, it also creates volatility, as networks of trade, capital, and people become more complex and influential and can get disrupted by weather, accidents, or political events.

Resetting Our Intuition

These four disruptions are upending established patterns across all sectors, influencing every aspect of life. The simultaneous occurrence of these disruptions means our world is changing in ways that are often unrecognisable from the one in which many of us grew up. This challenges forecasts based on extrapolating past trends and requires a reassessment of the assumptions upon which decisions have traditionally been made.

Our intuitions, shaped by decades of incremental and predictable change, no longer provide reliable guidance. In the past, globalisation favoured established players, labour markets operated predictably, and resource prices trended downward. But these patterns are no longer reliable. We now live in a world where rapid, unexpected change is the norm. If we rely on outdated intuitions, we risk making decisions that no longer align with the new reality.

This is especially true for organisations and leaders who have enjoyed past success. Human nature often leads us to expect the future to resemble the recent past, which can be a dangerous assumption. The key to navigating this changing landscape lies in embracing new ways of thinking and boldly questioning old assumptions. Success will depend on the ability to adapt and stay ahead of the curve in an increasingly complex and rapidly evolving world.

In conclusion, these four disruptions-urbanisation, technological change, demographic shifts, and global connectivity-are converging to create a new world order. They could all play to India’s strengths if we reset our intuition.

The author Richard Dobbs is now a board member for several organisations. Views are personal.