Distress sales on the anvil

Real estate developers may have finally blinked and started lowering their prices, but customers aren’t buying yet— neither their protestations of maximum discounts nor their product offerings. The findings from two different surveys reveal as much. While DTZ International Property Advisor’s Demand Analysis and Real Estate Trends (DART) Survey 2009 focusses on the trends in the commercial office space rental market, property portal Makaan.com’s Me, My Home and Property Rates consumer survey looks at the residential segment.

DTZ’s research, in fact, reveals why customers are still holding on to their horses. “If you compare today’s rentals with the peak values— of end-2007—prices are down by 20-25 per cent, with another 10-15 per cent correction expetced this year,” points out Anshul Jain, CEO (India), DTZ. Its DART survey, which covered 48 companies across Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru, reveals that 70 per cent of the respondents do not expect the market to bottom out before the next six months— clearly indicating that they will be driving some hard bargains with the developers for lease rentals. In fact, renegotiation of rentals, by at least 10-15 per cent, tops the agenda of these companies.

Residential property: Roping in the fence sitters How much discount will attract how many buyers? 21% home seekers expect discount greater than 30% 23% home seekers want discount between 20-30% 21% home seekers expect discount between 10-20% 14% home seekers seek discount up to 10% 21% home seekers willing to buy even at current price levels Source:Makaan.com

Interestingly, a significant percentage of the occupiers—19 per cent—are also using the current downturn in the realty segment to relocate to more upmarket areas that are now more affordable. In the residential segment, capital values are predicted to fall further by 20-30 per cent before activity picks up, according to the Makaan.com survey which sought responses from over 4,600 home seekers nationally. “I think developers are still testing the waters by announcing nominal discounts to see if there’s some response from the market before they reduce prices further,” observes Aditya Verma, Vice President and Business Head, Makaan.com. Prices, he says, need to come down by 40-50 per cent from their peak as 74 per cent of home seekers are looking for a property in the sub-Rs 30 lakh category.

It’s a thought shared by Sachin Sandhir, Managing Director and Country Head, India, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), who also expects home loan interest rates to bottom out at 7 per cent. “I expect prices to go back to 2004 levels before demand starts to pick up again,” predicts Sandhir. Distress sales, according to him, will be the norm in 2009 with survival of the cheapest. That just might be the silver lining both consumers—and developers—are looking for.

% Respondents	Bottoming out in
11	0-3 months
19	3-6 months
38	6-12 months
32	Beyond 12 months