Developing nations need mutual emission reduction commitments

India has a unique position among the 196 countries that are meeting in Paris on November 30 for the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference. It has a gigantic voluntary emission reduction commitment, given its relatively low per capita carbon emission.

The country has an estimated $2.5 trillion plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 33-35 per cent from the 2005 levels and it hopes to do that by 2030 if things go according to plan. This is despite the fact that the per capita carbon emission (per tonne per person) in India is just 1.6 as against 16.4 in the United States and 7.4 in the European Union.

By voluntarily proposing a near impossible task, India is at the risk of losing face when it comes to honouring its commitment. The only way to avoid that is to make it clear that the proposal means nothing until there is sufficient financial and technical support to implement it.

There is a rationale to do it too. The climate change talks began in 1992 with an understanding that the industrialised or developed countries would - as they are the source of most greenhouse gas emissions - do the most to cut emissions on home ground. It was also agreed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that developed nations would support climate change activities in developing countries by providing financial support for action.

By voluntarily proposing a near impossible task, India is at the risk of losing face when it comes to honouring its commitment.

Over the years, leading polluters have tried to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but they are still way above levels in India. For instance, China, United States and the European Union account for approximately 55 per cent of the annual global emissions. India has a 5.7 per cent share, but its population and development needs make it more difficult to scale down emissions than most of the developed countries. Despite the odds, India remains active in climate change negotiations through voluntary commitments. This is primarily because the country is also one of the most vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change.

A recent World Bank report Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty says that in the next 15 years, an additional 100 million people, mostly in Africa and South Asia, could get pushed into poverty due to the adverse impact of climate change on agriculture and public health with more frequent disease outbreaks. Almost 45 million of these additional poor will belong to India. This report was intentionally released just ahead of the UNFCC meet to underscore the need for emission control measures. The World Bank prescribed solutions - of rapid, inclusive and climate-smart development, together with emission reduction efforts that protect the poor - constitute the core of India's voluntary commitment formally known as the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). These actions will form the basis of negotiations on the new international agreement on climate change in Paris.

Seen from this context, India's INDC is highly ambitious and reflects the serious socio-economic threat it faces from climate change. It aims to develop India's renewable energy capacity from the current 36 gigawatt (GW) to 250 GW or approximately 40 percent of the total energy production by 2030 (its current share in India is just 13 percent). Similarly, it wants to create an additional carbon storage and absorption capacity for 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030, through greater forest and tree cover.

While the objectives are laudable, the fact remains that even if India meets its commitments it still does not insulate the country from the perils of climate change, a global phenomenon. For the World Bank prescribed solutions to work, the emission reduction and mitigation targets of the major polluters should be much greater than that of India.

Over the years, leading polluters have tried to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but they are still way above levels in India.

India has very little left to trade off in the Paris negotiations. It should have started off by offering less, and raised its commitment gradually on the basis of reciprocity. Now, having lost that chance, it should take a clear position that the implementation of these targets solely depends upon the international financial and technical help it receives and the level of commitments others make.

Fulfilment of these commitments also means huge business opportunities. India alone needs to spend $834 billion on mitigation activities while its estimates for implementing adaptation actions in agriculture, forestry, fisheries infrastructure, water resources and ecosystems is $206 billion. In energy sector alone, the investment will be about $7.7 billion.

The developed countries may not be the ones to be worst hit by changes in the climate. But they may benefit the most from the money spent on climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts.