Energy Booster

The Nuclear Suppliers Group's (NSG's) plenary in Seoul is scheduled to be held on June 23-24. Will India be able to get into this elite group? Things have got tough following firm opposition from a group of member countries led by China. On June 9-10, in a closed door meeting of diplomats in Austria's capital Vienna, representatives of China along with New Zealand, Ireland, Turkey, South Africa and Austria objected to India's membership of NSG.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who finished his five-nation tour on June 9, secured assurances from Mexico and Switzerland, and also stitched a strategic alliance with the US to help persuade other members not to oppose India's membership. But the American influence is obviously not working on China.

In fact, India itself is trying to garner support from China as well, since the game at NSG is not about building numbers but attaining consensus. A China vote against India would be akin to that of any of the other 47 members, and could crash India's plans. Just before Modi's tour, President Pranab Mukherjee went to Beijing to personally take up the issue with China's President Xi Jingping. Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar, who accompanied Mukherjee, met Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi. But the Chinese don't want India to get into this elite group unless NSG also considers Pakistan's application.

Both India and Pakistan have refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). But while there is global suspicion that in the past, Pakistan clandestinely supplied nuclear equipment and technologies to North Korea and Iran, there is no such needle pointing to India. As such, Indian diplomats are attempting to build up the country's case. But from China's viewpoint, if India alone gets NSG membership, it would disturb the balance of power in South Asia. However, the other member countries are opposing both India and Pakistan's application on the grounds that no exception should be allowed, and both countries should be forced to sign NPT and CTBT before allowing them entry into the NSG.

In the past two years, Modi travelled to nearly 17 member countries and met with their leadership. On his recent tour to Switzerland and Mexico, he assured the leadership there, especially Mexican President Enrique Pea Nieto, of India's commitment to disarmament and non-proliferation. Winning their support is being seen as a major success for Modi and India.

Membership of NSG would allow India much smoother access to nuclear fuel, technology and equipment. Currently, 13 of India's 21 reactors are under safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Data from India's Central Electricity Agency show that the country's electricity requirement is poised to rise to 3,710,083 million units in 2032 from the current 1,354,874 million units. India has already committed to the world to cut emissions intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP) by 33-35 per cent by 2030 from 2005 levels. To attain this, India needs to achieve 40 per cent of its cumulative electric power of 350 GW installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources. Along with renewable energy sources, India is looking at nuclear. By 2032, India sees its nuclear capacity at around 63,000 MW.

In fact, on this tour to the US, India was able to stitch a $20-million US-India Clean Energy Finance initiative and a $40-million US-India Catalytic Solar Finance Program with equal financial contribution from the two countries. But renewable can form only 10-15 per cent of the entire electricity supply in the country. And if India wants to move its base load from coal-based power plants, the best option is nuclear.

NSG membership will also provide more comfort to Japan to sign documents on the US's 123 agreement, paving the way for establishment of new nuclear plants in India. If China doesn't play ball, India would require a plan B. In 2008, India managed to get a special waiver at NSG, and is following the group's norms despite not being a member. In his letter to most member nations, US Secretary of State John Kerry is citing this example to garner more support.

India has already stitched agreements with French major AREVA of France for the supply of 300 metric tonnes of uranium ore concentrate; Russian TVEL Corporation for 2,000 tonnes of natural uranium dioxide pellets; Kazakh NAC Kazatomprom for 5,000 tonnes uranium ore concentrate; Uzbek NMMC for 2,000 tonnes uranium ore concentrate; and Canadian CAMECO for 3,000 tonnes uranium ore concentrate. Supplies from these countries have started fuelling reactors in India, but if India has to multiply its installed capacity, full membership is a must. Toshiba-backed Westinghouse may set up six AP-1000 reactors in Andhra Pradesh, and more players are keeping tabs on India's NSG move to get in here. Other than the US, India is also working with France, Russia, and Japan to bring in reactors from the companies there. The biggest obstacle in these deals is India not being a member of NSG.

Of course, full membership doesn't mean automatic installation of nuclear reactors. India's stringent liability laws increase the insurance cost of operators as well as suppliers, something the government is working on. Moreover, there has been internal resistance to building new nuclear plants, both in Kondakullam and Jaitapur. But that bridge can be crossed when we come to it. The immediate priority is to get NSG membership. All eyes are on the June 23 plenary in Seoul.