Trends 2009

It was as way back as the October of 2007 that rating agency Standard and Poor’s had predicted that the US subprime housing crisis would not peak until 2009. If a global downturn that’s deepening by the day is any indicator, the S&P boys had got it spot-on. As BT went to press last fortnight, Japan had joined the US in slashing interest rates to near zero. And experts have begun warning that the world economy will contract in 2009.

Now for the good news, according to S&P’s year-old prophecy: Emerging markets would drive the world economy, even as the US would lag global growth. For an economy that’s, in a worst-case scenario, expected to grow at 6 per cent, India is in a relatively sweet spot—even if most Indians don’t feel it.

Already, the signs are that the worst is getting over and things will start improving sooner rather than later—though the improvement could be slow and halting. What will be the contours of these change and how will they impact economy, industry, incomes and jobs? The stories provide some answers. As it turns out, we do have plenty to look forward to.