After a 25% fall from its peak, analysts see up to 43% upside in this multibagger stock

HDFC AMC share price: Domestic brokerage firms continue to remain positive on HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd (HDFC AMC) after the analyst meet hosted by the management team of the HDFC Group entity, with CEO Navneet Munot and other senior management, which focusing on macro trends and its initiatives to maintain its top position, along with profitability.

Nuvama Institutional cited realignment of distribution commission led to an improvement in yield, SIP inflows remained strong; SIP market share slipped as HDFC AMC discontinued new SIPs in its Defence Fund; and new asset class to be an additional growth driver as the key takeaways from the meeting.

However, the stock was under some pressure on Thursday as it dropped more than 3 per cent to Rs 3,648.25 during the session, with its market capitalization slipping below Rs 80,000 crore mark. It had settled at Rs 3,762.80 in Tuesday's session. Shares of HDFC AMC have crippled nearly 25 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 4,862, hit in December 2024.

HDFC AMC has been one of the top-performing players in the industry, benefitting from an experienced team with a strong track record, best-in-class cost management, upside from the HDFC channel, and continued investments to enhance capabilities. Its wide expertise in the industry provides it with an edge over many peers who have recently entered the industry, said Motilal Oswal.

"We have cut our EPS estimates by 6 per cent each for FY26/FY27 to account for the impact of weak market performance on MTM and slower growth of equity AUM. We reiterate our 'buy' rating on the stock with a target of Rs 4,800, premised on 38 times FY27E Core EPS," it added.

HDFC AMC sounded optimistic on growth potential of India’s AMC space, said Prabhudas Lilladher. "Unique investors for the MF industry can increase at a good pace and HDFC AMC will be a dominant player in this journey as its strong brand value is a function of its track record led by strong investment, risk and product management," it said.

"Investor behavior is maturing as the industry saw stable SIP flows during falling markets. Closing equity AuM for industry corrected by 9.4 per cent over October 2024-January 2025; hence we trim core EPS for FY26/27E by 5 per cent. Stock is valued at 29 times on September 2026 core EPS; we maintain a multiple of 35 times but cut target price to Rs 4,450 from Rs 4,700," it said with a 'buy' tag.

Prolonged adverse equity market conditions may affect HDFC AMC’s AUM; that said, continued equity inflows are expected to partially offset the MTM hit, said Nuvama. "We value the stock at FY25E/26E/27E EV/NOPLAT of 49.8 times/44 times/37.5 times with an unchanged target price of Rs 5,200," it added with a 'buy' rating, suggesting and upside of 43 per cent in the stock.