Can Maruti Suzuki India Q4 results justify recent stock rally? Here's earnings preview

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL), whose shares are up 26 per cent in 2024 so far, will be announcing its March quarter results today. The largest carmaker is seen reporting 50-65 per cent year-on-year (YoY) jump in net profit for the March quarter on 20-22 per cent rise in net sales, on favourable product mix, increase in average selling price (ASP) and healthy volumes. Margin is seen expanding by 150-350 basis points YoY on commodity tailwinds  and favourable forex, analysts said.

Prabhudas Lilladher expects Maruti Suzuki India to log 48 per cent YoY surge in net profit at Rs 3,884 crore from Rs 2,623.60 crore YoY. It sees sales for Maruti Suzuki rising 21.2 per cent YoY to Rs 38,838 crore from Rs 32,048 crore. Ebitda is seen rising 47 per cent YoY to Rs 4,926 crore while Ebitda margin is seen expanding 223 basis points to 12.7 per cent.

"We expect MSIL's revenue to grow by 21.2 per cent YoY/16 per cent QoQ, driven by volume expansion of 13.4 per cent YoY/16.5 per cent QoQ. The mix of UVs increased from 26 per cent in Q4FY23 to 36.7 per cent in Q4FY24, which should aid in Ebitda margin expansion. Consequently, PAT could grow by 48 per cent YoY/24.1 per cent QoQ," PL said.

Nomura India sees Maruti Suzuki India's profit at Rs 4,265 crore, up 63 per cent YoY. It sees sales for MSIL rising 21 per cent YoY to Rs 38,693 crore. This brokerage sees margin at 13.9 per cent, up 347 basis points.

"We expect revenue growth of 21 per cent YoY as volumes are up 13 per cent YoY followed by favourable mix and price hike. Ebitda margins increase by 220 basis points QoQ to 13.9 per cent on operating leverage, benign commodity and lower discounts," it said.

Kotak Institutional Equities expect revenues to increase 20 per cent YoY led by 13 per cent YoY increase in volumes and 6 per cent YoY  increase in ASPs due to price increases and a richer product mix (higher mix of SUV segment).

"We expect EBITDA margin to improve by 170 bps qoq to 13.5 per cent led by (1) operating leverage benefit, (2) commodity tailwinds, (3) favourable forex and (4) lower discounts in 4QFY24," it said.

ICICI Securities sees MSIL profit soaring 56 per cent YoY to Rs 4,084 crore on 22 per cent YoY jump in sales at Rs 39,130 crore.