ICICI Bank share price targets post Q3 results suggest up to 39% upside potential

ICICI Bank Ltd Q3 results were largely inline with estimates, even as the private lender made AIF provisions of Rs 630 crore. Anlaysts said the net interest margin (NIM) contracted marginally to 4.43 per cent, which was better than expectations. Following the results, brokerages have either maintained or raised their stock price targets marginally on the banking stock. The target range stays largely in Rs 1,150-1,400 range, suggesting up to 39 per cent potential upside over the prevailing price.

Nuvama has upped its target price on the stock to Rs 1,200 per share from Rs 1,180 per share while Elara raised its target on the stock to Rs 1,214 from Rs 1,200. Motilal Oswal Securties maintained its target of Rs 1,230, Jefferies sees it at Rs 1,250, HSBC Rs 1,270 and Citi Rs 1,322. Emkay Global has a target of Rs 1,400 on the scrip. InCred Equities, meanwhile, said it prefers HDFC Bank to ICICI Bank.

“ICICI’s loan-to-deposit-ratio at 87 per cent is also among the best for private banks. The management also hinted at the emergence of operating leverage going ahead, as the pace of headcount additions slows down

We have raised FY24F EPS by 7 per cent, as we factor in lower credit costs; FY25-26F EPS is largely unchanged. ICICI Bank continues to be our top pick,” said Nomura India. This brokerage has a target of Rs 1,225 on the stock.

Nuvama said ICICI Bank reported better-than-expected NIM, lower-than-expected opex that offset lower fees, and a healthy LDR. There was a marginal miss on profit due to an AIF provision, it said. The brokerage said ICICI Bank's return on assets (ROA) at 2.3 per cent was highest among reporting banks.

"We are tweaking earnings and revising up the target to Rs 1,200 from Rs 1,180). Our new target is based on 2.1x one-year forward BVPS. Given a comfortable LDR of 86.6 per cent, LCR of 121 per cent, a strong deposit franchise and gross credit cost running low at 0.5 per cent, we believe ICICI Bank has the potential to grow assets faster than other large private banks," it said.

Motilal Oswal said slippages were slightly elevated due to the Kisan Credit Card (KCC) segment, the bank maintains a total contingency buffer of Rs 13,100 crore (1.1 per cent of loans), which provides comfort. "We slightly raise our EPS estimates by 1.6 per cent/0.9 per cent for FY24/FY25 and expect ICICI Bank to deliver RoA/RoE of 2.3 per cent/18.3 per cent in FY25. We maintain BUY with a target of Rs 1,230," it said.

Elara said that the ICICI Bank's robust underlying and levers to continue delivering better risk-adjusted return makes it believe that even on high base the risk of an earnings disappointment is rather low. This brokerage maintained 'Buy' on ICICI Bank and suggested a revised target of Rs 1,214 (earlier Rs 1,192) on the stock as the broking firm rolled forward its estimates to September 2025E.

"We have valued the standalone ICICI Bank at 2.5 times FY25F BV (relative discount to HDFC Bank at 2.7 times) and its arms at Rs 200 per share. We have retained our estimates and kept the target price intact at Rs 1,150 or 3.1 times FY25F BV. We have retained our ADD rating on the stock," it said.