Paytm, HDFC Bank, Infosys among top picks by Axis Securities for 2025 with up to 46% upside potential

As the world welcomes the new year 2025, domestic brokerage firm Axis Securities has cherry picked a dozen stocks across all sectors and segments that are believed to deliver up to 46 per cent returns in the current year. The brokerage firm expects India's growth story to continue in the new year with Trump's policies, geopolitical cues, rate cuts and direction of INR and oil.

Indian equity markets are likely to remain volatile in 2025, and it could respond in either direction based on the developments. However, it expects the first half of 2025 to be more volatile. More concrete developments are expected in the second half. The majority of the return expectations are backend-loaded in 2025. Here are top stock picks from the brokerage firm:
 

Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC | Buy | Target Price: Rs 950-1,045 | Upside: 30-43%

The quarterly price action of Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC confirms a 'rounding bottom' breakout at Rs 723, marking a strong bullish signal. Significant volume growth over the past three quarters highlights increased market participation during rallies. The stock is consistently trending higher, forming a series of higher highs and lows across timeframes. We anticipate the uptrend to continue, with the stock targeting Rs 950-1,045 levels in the coming months.

Aster DM Healthcare | Buy | Target Price: Rs 613-685 | Upside: 30-46%

The BSE Healthcare index gained 41.5 per cent in 2024, ranking among the top sectors, with momentum likely to continue in 2025. Aster DM is trending strongly within an upward channel on the quarterly chart, signalling a sustained bullish trajectory. Recently, it found support at the channel's lower band and is now advancing towards the upper band. Notably, volume activity has surged over the past three quarters, indicating increased participation from market players at the channel's lower support. We anticipate the stock's bullish momentum to strengthen further, targeting levels of Rs 685, aligning with the upper band of the channel.

Capacite Infraprojects | Buy | Target Price: Rs 513-555 | Upside: 29-39%

The BSE Realty index broke above a multiyear high in 2024, rallying 35 per cent, with momentum expected to persist into 2025. A stock within this index recently surpassed the multi-year high around Rs 425 on the quarterly chart, signaling a continuation of its medium-term uptrend. The stock is forming higher highs and lows, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. Both the quarterly and monthly RSI indicators are in bullish territory, holding above the reference line, further supporting a positive bias. We anticipate the stock to maintain its upward trajectory, with a target range of Rs 513-555.

Gujarat Fluorochemicals | Buy | Target Price: Rs 4,815-5,213 | Upside: 17-27%

Gujarat Fluoro had been consolidating within a tight range of Rs 3,950-2,500 since early 2022, reflecting a prolonged indecision phase. In September 2024, the stock broke out of this range with a strong bullish candle, signalling a shift in momentum and the onset of a medium-term uptrend. Since the breakout, the stock has maintained levels above the consolidation zone, confirming the strength of the breakout and indicating a continuation of its long-term bullish trajectory. With a 1500-point consolidation range, the stock is expected to target Rs 4,815-5,213, signalling strong upside potential.

HDFC Bank | Buy | Target Price: Rs 1,950-2,200 | Upside: 15-30%

The Bankex index has been in a strong uptrend since mid-2022. This momentum is expected to persist into 2025. On the quarterly chart, HDFC Bank has broken out of a four-year consolidation zone (Rs 1,340-1,740) at Rs 1,740, signaling the continuation of its bullish trend. Rising volumes over the past two years highlight growing market participation. The stock also holds above the 30-week SMA at Rs 1,692, a critical support zone. The monthly RSI (14) is positioned positively, reflecting sustained strength. We anticipate the stock to extend its upward momentum toward Rs 1,950-2,200 levels

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation | Buy | Target Price: Rs 485-544 | Upside: 28-43%

Since 2017, Hindustan Petroleum has consolidated within the Rs 300-130 range. However, the strong up move in 2024 propelled it past the 'multiple resistance' at Rs 300 levels on the yearly chart, signalling a robust bullish trend. The quarterly price formation confirms a 'rounding bottom,' reinforcing positive bias, while a yearly Bollinger Band buy signal indicates growing momentum. Rising volumes over the past 2-3 years highlight increasing market participation, further supporting the bullish outlook. We project the stock to extend its uptrend from current levels, targeting Rs 2,300-2,500 in the coming quarters.

Infosys | Buy | Target Price: Rs 2,165-2,335 | Upside: 20-30%

The BSE IT index broke above the Cup and Handle pattern in 2024, signalling the onset of an uptrend in 2025 post-breakout. After forming a top at 1954 in March 2022, Infosys experienced profit booking and retraced 38 per cent of the Fibonacci move from Rs 509 to Rs 1,954 (March 2020 - March 2022), finding support at the Rs 1,231 level. This sharp rebound confirms a strong medium-term support base. With the quarterly RSI indicators in bullish mode, indicating a positive bias. We expect the stock to continue its upward momentum, with a target of Rs 2,165 and Rs 2,335 levels.

Man Infraconstruction | Buy | Target Price: Rs 295-328 | Upside: 22-36%

Man Infra has been in a strong uptrend since mid-2020, consistently forming higher highs and lows while holding above its upward-sloping trendline. On the quarterly chart, the stock formed a bullish 'pennants' pattern following a sharp rally and broke above it this quarter, signalling the continuation of its medium-term uptrend. Rising volume at the breakout confirms strong market participation. We expect the stock to extend its bullish momentum post-breakout, with a projected longer-term target range of Rs 295-328.

Muthoot Finance | Buy | Target Price: Rs 2,285-2,455 | Upside: 18-27%

Muthoot Finance exhibits bullish momentum with higher highs and lows across all timeframes. The stock is trending within an 'up-sloping channel' on the yearly chart, reaffirming its strong uptrend. It also broke out of a four-year 'multiple resistance zone' at Rs 1,500-1,560, signalling further upside potential. The monthly and quarterly RSI indicators remain positive, underscoring sustained strength on a larger time frame.

Natco Pharma | Buy | Target Price: Rs 1,616-1,785 | Upside: 28-42%

Natco Pharma, previously consolidating for eight years, has now broken out of its consolidation zone on the yearly chart, signalling a continuation of its long-term uptrend. The stock forms higher highs and lows while holding above an upward-sloping trendline, reflecting a positive bias. The breakout is validated by increased volume activity, indicating strong market participation and reinforcing the bullish momentum at the breakout level. With the breakout above a 600-point range, we anticipate the stock to resume its upward trajectory, targeting levels of Rs 1,616-1,785.

One97 Communications | Buy | Target Price: Rs 1,150-1,265 | Upside: 28-41%

On the quarterly chart, Paytm has decisively broken out of a four-year down sloping trendline, signalling a major trend reversal. Additionally, a 'Morning Star' reversal pattern highlights bullish sentiment. The stock has also surpassed the key resistance zone of Rs 880-900 on a closing basis. With rising volumes indicating strong participation, we expect the stock to resume its upward momentum and move toward Rs 1,150-1,265 in the coming quarters.

Polyplex Corporation | Buy | Target Price: Rs 1,595-1,735 | Upside: 34-46%

Since 2000, Polyplex Corp has been trending within an 'up-sloping channel' on the yearly chart, underscoring a strong long-term bullish trend. The 2024 price correction saw the stock retest its lower-end support zone, followed by a sharp rebound, indicating robust buying interest at lower levels. Rising volumes over the past 4-5 years highlight increased market participation, reinforcing the bullish outlook. We anticipate the stock will extend its uptrend from current levels.