Reliance Industries Q4 results: RJio revenue seen at Rs 23,400 crore; here're estimates for retail, energy businesses

Reliance Industries is expected to report a flattish profit for the March quarter, analysts said ahead of the oil-to-telecom major’s quarterly earnings. All eyes would be on how the consumer facing businesses such as Reliance Retail and Reliance Jio (RJio) and energy business numbers may look like:

RIL retail business

Nomura India, which expects Reliance's adjusted profit to fall 1 per cent YoY to Rs 16,000 crore, said retail business may log a gross revenue of Rs 70,710 crore, up 22 per cent YoY (up 5 per cent QoQ) and a core revenue of Rs 46,650 crore, up 28 per cent YoY (up 6 per cent QoQ). It sees Ebit margin at 6.9 per cent against 6.2 per cent YoY.

"On the back of robust store addition trajectory (added 2,100 new outlets in 9MFY23) and favourable base, we expect Reliance Retail to register revenue growth of 20 per cent YoY at Rs 69,415 crore. Excluding Jio connectivity, we expect core retail revenue to increase 24 per cent YoY. We expect Ebitda margins (excluding other income) to improve 70 bps YoY to 6.9 per cent," ICICIdirect said in its results preview.

Reliance Jio

For RJio business, Nomura is pegging revenue at Rs 23,430 crore, up 12 per cent YoY. It sees Ebitda rising 17 per cent YoY to Rs 12,340 crore and profit to come in at Rs 4,690 crore. It is pegging average revenue per user at Rs 179 against Rs 168 YoY. It sees subscriber base at 43.9 crore against 41 crore, up 7 per cent YoY.

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Emkay Global expects RJio to add the highest number of subscribers among peers at 55 lakh sequentially, but the wireline subscriber addition momentum is likely to moderate this quarter, with addition of 6.5 lakh subscribers against 9 lakh subscribers in the December quarter, which may have prompted the company to come up with the recent attractively-priced JioFiber plans. It estimate revenue for Jio growing 1.7 per cent sequentially (up 11.9 per cent YoY) to Rs 23,394 crore. It sees Ebitda rising 2.1 per cent QoQ. This brokerage sees average revenue per user at Rs 179 against Rs 168 YoY.

ICICIdirect expects Reliance Jio to lead sub addition with 65 million net sub additions. The monthly ARPU, like peers, is expected to witness modest growth amid lower number of days, at 0.6 per cent QoQ at Rs 179. Overall revenues are expected at Rs 23,455 crore, up 2 per cent QoQ.

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RIL energy business

ICICIdirect said improvement in gross refining margin (GRM) is expected to lead to growth of 10.5 per cent QoQ growth in in oil-to-chemical (O2C) segment Ebitda to Rs 15,387 crore. E&P Ebitda is expected to remain flat QoQ at Rs 3,854 crore

On YoY basis, Nomura India sees O2C Ebitda at Rs 14,620 crore, up 3 per cent YoY. It expects upstream Ebitda to surge 157 per cent YoY to Rs 4,000 crore from Rs 1,560 crore YoY. Refining margin is seen at 11 per cent, same as the year-ago quarter, but down from 11.4 per cent in the December quarter.

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