SBI Q4 results preview: Profit may fall 3-7% YoY; muted growth in NII likely

State Bank of India (SBI) is likely to report a single-digit fall in profit for the March quarter on a flattish growth in net interest income (NII). Net interest margin may fall sequentially, analysts said. On a sequential basis, YES Securities sees loan growth at 3. .5 per cent. NII growth, it said, will be slightly slower than average loan growth due to rise in cost of deposits outpacing yield on advances. 

"Consequently, NIM will be slightly lower sequentially. Sequential fee income growth will broadly match loan growth. Opex would be slightly lower sequentially due to de-growth in employee expenses, where wage-related provisions would be lower. Slippages would be broadly stable on sequential basis. Provisions will rise materially on sequential basis due to low base in 3Q," it said.

On YoY basis, this brokerage expects profit to fall 7.1 per cent YoY to Rs 15,516 crore on 1.2 per cent YoY rise in NII at Rs 40,878 crore.

Motilal Oswal Securities sees profit falling 3.4 per cent YoY to Rs 16,127 crore on 2.6 per cent YoY rise in NII at Rs 41,460 crore. Opex may remain under control for SBI, it said adding that earnings may improve sequentially, as wage provisions were made in Q3FY24. Motilal Oswal expects business growth to be healthy and asset quality to remain broadly stable.  Margin may have slight downward bias, it said.

Nuvama, meanwhile, sees profit falling 33 per cent to Rs 11,071 crore. This brokerage expects loan growth of 4 per cent QoQ and deposit growth of 3 per cent QoQ. 

"We expect strong growth in other income QoQ and opex to decline. Provisions are expected to be higher QoQ. Margins could decline marginally," it said.

SBI shares are up 40 per cent in the past six months. The PSU bank stock is up 26 per cent for 2024 so far.