BJP seat wins, stock market: 89% voting done! State-wise estimates for Hindi heartland

Lok Sabha elections are at their last leg, with 89 per cent of total seats already polled so far. Ahead of the last phase of elections on June 1, data showed the gap in voter turnout in the first two phases has meaningfully narrowed down and the final turnout could end up being marginally below 2019 levels. BJP was the incumbent party on 278 seats of total 486 seats polled so far. 

Stock broker IIFL Securities noted that the Hindi heartland states continue to witness a higher decline (3 per cent) against 0.6 per cent decline for non-Hindi heartland states. Despite this, the brokerage expects BJP to retain majority, led by modest gains in Uttar Pradesh (absence of SP-BSP alliance), Odisha, West Bengal, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. It sees BJP  winning a higher 320 seats in 2024 against 303 in 2019. 

Key stock indices Sensex and Nifty have surged over 3 per cent each since elections kicked started on April 19, as initial concerns over lower voter turnout faded, even as volatility continued to stay high as suggested by fear gauge India VIX.    

"We note that except for 1951-67, India has never seen voter turnout increase for 3 consecutive elections. Extrapolating this, after witnessing voter turnout increase in 2014 and 2019 elections, we may see marginal decline/ flat turnout in 2024 elections as well," it said.

IIFL Securities sees BJP gaining 10 seats over its 2019 tally in Uttar Pradesh. It sees the Narendra Modi-led party to add 5 seats each over 2019 tally in Odisha and West Bengal. Also, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are seen adding 3 seats each.

After six phases of elections, there has been 150 basis points average decline in voter turnout against 400 basis points decline in voter turnout seen in Phase 1. Phase 4 and Phase 5 witnessed a marginal increase vis-a-vis 2019, while Phase 6 witnessed a marginal dip.

IIFL Securities said a total of 156 seats out of 486 seats polled have recorded an increase in voter turnout compared to 2019 elections i.e. 32 per cent of total seats.

IIFL does not expect 2024 elections to spring a surprise outcome like in 2004 elections due to the huge vote share difference between the BJP and Congress. 

"Media reports suggests possible losses for the BJP in states of Rajasthan, Karnataka and Haryana and a few seat losses for the NDA in Maharashtra due to alliance/candidate selection issues. With over 50 per cent vote share in 224 seats in 2019, we still believe unless there are major down swings in vote share BJP should retain its majority," it said.