Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 25 pts; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are likely to open on a muted note on Wednesday amid the rising confusion over the US-India trade deal as the deadline of July 9 ends today. Traders shall be keenly looking at India Inc's Q1 numbers, which shall kick-off from Thursday and rate cut cues on the US on the global front.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 25.40 points, or 0.10 per cent, lower at 25,586.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian stocks were trading mixed in the early trade. Nikkei was down 0.06 per cent, while KOSPI added 0.19 per cent. Hang Seng was down nearly half a per cent.

Overall, markets are expected to remain optimistic in the near term, supported by hopes of a trade breakthrough and the upcoming earnings season, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Wall Street stocks ended Tuesday's choppy session slightly lower as investors waited for clarity on US trade policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 165.60 points, or 0.37 per cent, to 44,240.76, the S&P 500 lost 4.46 points, or 0.07 per cent, to 6,225.52 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 5.95 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 20,418.46.

Oil prices edged slightly lower on Wednesday after rising to two-week highs in the previous session, as investors were watching new developments on US tariffs and trying to gauge their impact. Brent crude futures were down 0.3 per cent, at $69.95 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4 per cent, to $68.12 a barrel.

The dollar rose for a third day against the yen on Wednesday as US President Donald Trump pledged more trade-related proclamations after announcing 25 per cent tariffs on Japan and other trade partners. The dollar index was steady at 97.582 after a two-day climb.

The recent stability, despite lingering caution ahead of the trade deal announcement and the upcoming earnings season, suggests that the bulls remain in control and anticipate a resumption of the uptrend, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants should avoid complacency and maintain their focus on stock selection, as sectoral rotation continues," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 26.12 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,366.82 crore on a net-net basis.

A sideways session turned green in the final hour, but the undertone remains cautious, said Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital. "With global trade rhetoric heating up, the next move hinges on macro signals and the July 9 policy cues," he said.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook

Nifty has formed a reversal formation which supports further uptrend from the current levels on the daily and intraday charts. For the bulls, key levels to watch are 25,500/83,500. Above these levels, the market could continue its positive momentum toward 25,650–25,700 / 84,000–84,200, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the downside, if the market falls below 25,400/83,300, sentiment could shift. A decline below these levels might retest 25,300/83,000. Further weakness could persist, potentially dragging the market down to 25,200–25,175 / 82,700–82,600," he said.

Nifty formed a green candle following a hammer and a doji pattern on the daily charts, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "This type of setup often indicates a potential positive move ahead. On the lower end, support is placed at 25,400, while on the higher end, resistance is seen at 25,600 and 25,750–25,800," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank needs to hold above the key support level of 57,000 to maintain its positive structure. A breach below this level could lead to extended selling pressure, dragging the index towards the 56,800–56,500 zone, said Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking. "Immediate resistance is seen around 57,400, while the 57,600–57,800 zone remains a strong hurdle," he said.