
Indian benchmark indices are set to kick off the new month on a muted note on the back of feeble global cues. The return of Trump Tariff fears and rising geopolitical concerns may weigh at Dalal Street today after the Q4 results season for India Inc is over. Economic numbers and rate cut cues will be other major triggers for the markets.
Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 27.70 points, or 0.11 per cent, lower at 24,843.50 hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian share markets made a wary start to the week on Monday as investors navigated the shifting sands of White House tariff policy.
The domestic economic indicators are favourable, like a better monsoon forecast, a benign inflation trajectory, and pleasant Q4 GDP growth of 7.4 per cent, which may protect the downside, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments.
"The market is pricing in a 25bps cut, which will improve the outlook for rate-sensitive sectors. The positive macroeconomic scripts can boost investor sentiments, but stability in the broader market will be contingent on strong earnings growth and receding trade tensions," it said.
Wall Street shares ended mixed after a volatile session on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 54.34 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 42,270.07. The S&P 500 lost 0.48 points, or 0.01 per cent, at 5,911.69 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 62.11 points, or 0.32 per cent, to 19,113.77.
Widening rate spreads have so far offered only limited support to the US dollar. The US dollar index eased 0.2 per cent to 99.214. In commodity markets, gold edged up 0.6 per cent to $3,310 an ounce. Rate sensitive Bitcoin was up 1.06 per cent at $1,05,326.67 on Monday.
Oil prices bounced after OPEC+ decided to increase output in July by the same amount as it did in each of the prior two months, a relief to some who had feared an even bigger increase. Brent rose $1.07 to $63.85 a barrel, while US crude gained $1.18 to $61.95 per barrel.
Participants are now awaiting a fresh trigger to break the consolidation and resume the broader trend. In the meantime, one should align their trades with sectoral trends and themes that are attracting noticeable interest, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 6,449.74 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 9,095.91 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs have pumped in Rs 18,082 crore in the local equities in the month of May 2025.
Nifty & Sensex outlook
Nifty is consolidating in a range. A decisive move above 24,900 may push the index towards 25,200–25,600. On the downside, 24,600 remains strong support, with further buying expected near 24,400. RSI at 55.52 is dipping, hinting at waning bullish momentum, said Choice Broking.
"Derivatives data shows strong call writing at 25,000–25,500 and put support at 24,400, creating a defined trading range. Stay range-bound with a bullish bias. Buy on dips near 24,600–24,400 and trail profits above 24,900. Major breakout or breakdown expected only on clear triggers. Keep risk tight and position light ahead of key macro events," it added.
Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities believes that 20-day SMA will act as key support zones for short-term traders, while 25,000/82,200 will serve as a key resistance area for the bulls. "On the upside, breakout above 25,000/82,200 could push the market towards 25,250/82,900. Upside may continue, potentially lifting the index to 25,500/83,700."
Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has been locked in a sideways consolidation, yet it continues to trade above all its key moving averages, highlighting the resilience. However, a decisive and successive close above 56,100 would be crucial to confirm trend continuation and potentially open the path toward new highs, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.
"Any pullback towards these zones would be considered a normal corrective move within a broader bullish setup. Until a clear breakout occurs, the Nifty Bank index may continue to oscillate within this band. A buy on dip remains favourable with the current trend," he said.
Bank Nifty traded with high volatility throughout the week but managed to end positive, showing resilience near key support levels ,said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. "A sustained move above 56,100 could trigger a sharp rally toward 57000. Overall, the setup remains positive, and traders can look to buy on dips," he said.