Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 37 pts; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are likely to open on a muted note on Monday amid the muted global sentiments on the back of delay in trade deal between India and US. Results season kicked-off on a muted note adding to the pressure on Indian equities. Consistent FIIs outflow is also contributing to the wealth erosion at Dalal Street.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 37.40 points, or 0.15 per cent, lower at 25,186, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. Losses in Wall Street futures dragged Asian stocks lower on Monday. Nikkei tanked 0.35 per cent, while KOSPI was up 0.25 per cent. Hang Seng surged more than 0.70 per cent.

As the earnings season progresses, markets are expected to witness volatility driven by stock-specific factors, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "The lingering uncertainty around trade negotiations is likely to keep markets in a consolidation mode. Investors will focus on key domestic macro data, including CPI and WPI inflation prints."

Wall Street ended lower on Friday after President Donald Trump intensified his tariff offensive against Canada. The S&P 500 declined 0.33 per cent to end the session at 6,259.75 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.22 per cent to 20,585.53 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.63 per cent to 44,371.51 points.

Elsewhere, however, the dollar made limited gains. The dollar index rose 0.1 per cent to 98.008. In commodity markets, gold picked up a modest safe-haven bid and rose 0.3 per cent to $3,366 an ounce.

Oil prices edged higher on speculation Trump could announce stiffer sanctions on Russia later on Monday, including levies on major customers buying Russian oil. Brent edged up 0.1 per cent to $70.45 a barrel, while US crude firmed slightly to $0.68.50 per barrel.

"We anticipate a consolidation phase with a negative bias in the near term. Volatility is expected to persist amid global uncertainties and the unfolding earnings season. Traders are advised to maintain a stock-specific approach," said Ajit Mishra, SVP at Religare Broking. "Investors are advised to consider partial profit-taking on existing positions and adopt a cautious approach when adding fresh trades."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 5,104.22 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,558.63 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs have pulled out nearly 555 crore from Indian stocks in July so far.

As Q1FY26 earnings unfold, investors are closely monitoring guidance on margins and sector dynamics. Upcoming economic data releases including inflation figures from the US and India, as well as China’s GDP numbers are expected to draw investor attention, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook

Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities believes that as long as the market remains below 25,300/83,000, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. Below this level, the market could slip to the 50-day SMA or around 25,000/82,100. Further downside may also continue, potentially dragging the market down to 24,800-24,650/81500-81,100. On the other hand, if the market trades above 25,300/83000, sentiment could improve, he said.

Nifty continues to hold above its 55-day EMA, and the psychological support at 25,000 remains intact. The 25,060 level aligns with the 50 per cent Fibonacci retracement, making the 25,000–25,060 zone a strong dip-buying area, said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group. A decisive breach below this range could lead to further downside toward 24,750. On the upside, 25,300 now acts as a key resistance, he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a bear candle with a lower high and lower low signaling continuation of the corrective decline for the second session in a row. The index on expected lines in the last six sessions is seen consolidating in the range 56,500-57,600, said Bajaj Broking. "We expect the index to extend the same and only a move below 56,500 will signal an extension of corrective decline towards the key support area of 56,000-55,500," it said.

The Bank Nifty index is likely to face significant resistance in the 57,000–57,500 range, said Choice Broking. "Traders are advised to remain cautious, consider a sell on rise approach, and maintain strict stop-loss levels to manage risks effectively amid ongoing market volatility and potential price fluctuations," it said.